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Why Unemployment Is a Problem?
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results in:
-Lost incomes and production
-Lost human capital
-Lost incomes and production
-Lost human capital
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population is divided into two groups
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1.working-age population
2. too young to work
2. too young to work
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working-age population
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divided into two groups:
1.people in labor force,
2. people not in labor force
1.people in labor force,
2. people not in labor force
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labor force
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the sum of employed and unemployed workers.
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unemployed
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to be counted as _____: person must be one of these-->
1. without work (but made efforts in prev. 4 weeks)
2. waiting to be called back (laid off)
3. waiting to start a new job within 30 days
1. without work (but made efforts in prev. 4 weeks)
2. waiting to be called back (laid off)
3. waiting to start a new job within 30 days
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Three Labor Market Indicators
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1.The unemployment rate
2. The employment-to-population ratio
3. The labor force participation rate
2. The employment-to-population ratio
3. The labor force participation rate
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The Unemployment Rate
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is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed
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labor force
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= employed + unemployed
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increases, peak
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The unemployment rate ______ in a recession and reaches its ____ value after the recession ends.
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The Employment-to-Population Ratio
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is the percentage of the working-age population who have jobs.
= (employment/working-age pop) x 100
= (employment/working-age pop) x 100
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labor force participation rate
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the percentage of the working-age population who are members of the labor force.
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marginally attached workers
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person who currently is neither working nor looking for work but has indicated that he or she wants and is available for a job and has looked for work sometime in the recent past.
-discouraged worker
-discouraged worker
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discouraged worker
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marginally attached worker who has stopped looking for a job because of repeated failure to find one.
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economic part-time workers
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some part-time workers would like full-time jobs and can't find them
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long-term
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All unemployment is costly, but the most costly is ___-____ unemployment that results from job loss.
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3 classifications of unemployment
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-Frictional unemployment
-Structural unemployment
- Cyclical unemployment
-Structural unemployment
- Cyclical unemployment
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Frictional Unemployment
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-unemployment that arises from normal labor market turnover
-is a permanent and healthy phenomenon of a growing economy.
-is a permanent and healthy phenomenon of a growing economy.
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raise
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Increases in the number of people entering and reentering the labor force and increases in unemployment benefits ___ frictional unemployment.
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structural unemployment
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unemployment created by changes in technology and foreign competition that change the skills needed to perform jobs or the locations of jobs
-lasts longer than frictional unemployment
-lasts longer than frictional unemployment
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Cyclical unemployment
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the higher than normal unemployment at a business cycle trough and lower than normal unemployment at a business cycle peak (occurs during fluctuations in real GDP)
-being laid-off during recession and rehired during expansion
-being laid-off during recession and rehired during expansion
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Natural Unemployment
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is the unemployment that arises from frictions and structural change when there is NO CYCLICAL unemployment
-is all frictional and structural unemployment
-is all frictional and structural unemployment
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natural unemployment rate
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natural unemployment as a percentage of the labor force.
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full employment
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The level of unemployment that occurs when the unemployment rate is at the natural rate (again, no cyclical -> all is frictional and structural)
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Key Factors that change natural employment
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-The age distribution of the population
-The scale of structural change
-The real wage rate
-Unemployment benefits
-The scale of structural change
-The real wage rate
-Unemployment benefits
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Potential GDP
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is the quantity of real GDP produced at full employment.
-corresponds to the capacity of the economy to produce output on a sustained basis.
-corresponds to the capacity of the economy to produce output on a sustained basis.
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output gap
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real GDP- potential GDP
-over the business cycle, ______ ___ fluctuates and the unemployment rate fluctuates around the natural unemployment rate.
-over the business cycle, ______ ___ fluctuates and the unemployment rate fluctuates around the natural unemployment rate.
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negative
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when the output gap is ______, the unemployment rate exceeds the natural unemployment rate
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price level
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the average level of prices and the value of money
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inflation
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A persistently rising price level
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deflation
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A persistently falling price level, negative inflation
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unpredictable
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________ inflation or deflation is a problem because it:
-Redistributes income and wealth
- Lowers real GDP and employment
- Diverts resources from production
-Redistributes income and wealth
- Lowers real GDP and employment
- Diverts resources from production
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changes
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Unpredictable _____ in the inflation rate redistribute income in arbitrary ways between employers and workers and between borrowers and lenders.
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high
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A ____ inflation rate is a problem because it diverts resources from productive activities to inflation forecasting
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resources
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From a social perspective, this waste of _______ is a cost of inflation
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hyperinflation
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At its worst, inflation becomes ________ —an inflation rate that is so rapid that workers are paid twice a day because money loses its value so quickly.
-(think germany)
-(think germany)
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Consumer Price Index (CPI)
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measures the average of the prices paid by urban consumers for a "fixed" basket of consumer goods and services.
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reference base period
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The CPI is defined to equal 100 for the ____ ____ ____
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Constructing CPI
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involved 3 steps:
1. Selecting the CPI basket
2. Conducting a monthly price survey
3. Calculating the CPI
1. Selecting the CPI basket
2. Conducting a monthly price survey
3. Calculating the CPI
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The CPI Basket
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is based on a Consumer
Expenditure Survey, which is undertaken
infrequently
-housing is the largest component, then transport/food and beverages
Expenditure Survey, which is undertaken
infrequently
-housing is the largest component, then transport/food and beverages
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The Monthly Price Survey
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Every month, BLS employees check the prices of the 80,000 goods in the CPI basket in 30 metropolitan areas.
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Calculating CPI
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1. Find the cost of the CPI basket at base-period prices.
2. Find the cost of the CPI basket at current-period prices.
3. Calculate the CPI for the current period.
2. Find the cost of the CPI basket at current-period prices.
3. Calculate the CPI for the current period.
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CPI
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=
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Inflation rate
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is the percentage change in the price level from one year to the next.
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rapidly
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inflation is high when price level is rising ____
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slowly
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inflation is low when price level is rising _____
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negative
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inflation is _____ when price level is falling
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The Biased CPI
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- New goods bias
- Quality change bias
- Commodity substitution bias
- Outlet substitution bias
- Quality change bias
- Commodity substitution bias
- Outlet substitution bias
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new goods bias
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New goods that were not available in the base year appear and, if they are more expensive than the goods they replace, they put an upward bias into the CPI.
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quality change bias
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Quality improvements occur every year. Part of the rise in the price is payment for improved quality and is not inflation.
-The CPI counts all the price rise as inflation.
-The CPI counts all the price rise as inflation.
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Commodity Substitution Bias
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The market basket of goods used in calculating the CPI is fixed and does not take into account consumers' substitutions away from goods whose relative prices increase.
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outlet substitution bias
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As the structure of retailing changes, people switch to buying from cheaper sources, but the CPI, as measured, does not take account of this outlet substitution.
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Consequences of Bias
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-->Distorts private contracts.
--> Increases government outlays (close to a third of federal government outlays are linked to the CPI).
-A bias of 1 percent is small, but over a decade adds up to almost $1 trillion of additional expenditure.
--> Increases government outlays (close to a third of federal government outlays are linked to the CPI).
-A bias of 1 percent is small, but over a decade adds up to almost $1 trillion of additional expenditure.
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GDP deflator
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is like the PCE deflator except it includes the prices of all goods and services that are counted in GDP.
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real wage rate
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= (nominal wage rate/ GDP deflator) x 100