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fundamental macro equation
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Y = C + I + G + NX
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personal consumption expenditures
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- the expenditures of households for durable and nondurable consumer goods and services
- doesn't vary much even during periods of recession
- doesn't vary much even during periods of recession
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current disposable income
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income after taxes are paid and government transfers are received
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consumption function
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the relationship between consumption spending and disposable income
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Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC)
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- the slope of the consumption function: the amount by which consumption spending changes when disposable income changes
- change in spending / change in current income (GDP)
- change in spending / change in current income (GDP)
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Marginal Propensity to Save (MPS)
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- the increase in household savings when disposable income rises by $1
- 1-MPC
- 1-MPC
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expected future disposable income
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(Y-T+TR)^e
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determinants of consumption
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- current disposable income
- household wealth
- real interest rate
- price level
- household wealth
- real interest rate
- price level
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household wealth
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The value of assets - including property, shares, savings and pension fund assets - minus liabilities
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what does investment include?
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- plants and equipment (nonresidential fixed investment)
- housing (residential fixed investment)
- change in inventories
- housing (residential fixed investment)
- change in inventories
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inventories
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- finished goods that haven't been sold yet
- raw materials that haven't been used yet
- goods that aren't finished yet and are still in the middle of production
- raw materials that haven't been used yet
- goods that aren't finished yet and are still in the middle of production
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why investment is an important part of aggregate expenditure
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- it is the most volatile component
- it is vital to economic growth (change in capital)
- it is vital to economic growth (change in capital)
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determinants of investment
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- expectations of future profitability
- taxes (corporate income tax, investment tax credits)
- cash flow
- real interest rate
- taxes (corporate income tax, investment tax credits)
- cash flow
- real interest rate
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financing alternatives
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- borrow the money (bank loans, bonds)
- sell ownership shares
- use own retained earnings
- sell ownership shares
- use own retained earnings
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nominal exchange rate (E)
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- the price of one currency in terms of another currency
- unit of foreign currency / unit of domestic currency
- unit of foreign currency / unit of domestic currency
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appreciation
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- An increase in the value of a currency / exchange rate
- goods become more expensive for foreign buyers to purchase
- goods become more expensive for foreign buyers to purchase
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depreciation
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- decrease in the value of a currency / exchange rate
- goods become cheaper for foreign buyers to purchase
- goods become cheaper for foreign buyers to purchase
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demand for $US comes from
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- Foreign firms and households wanting to buy U.S. goods and services
- Foreign firms and households wanting to invest in U.S. physical or financial assets
- Currency traders believing the value of the $US will rise
- Foreign firms and households wanting to invest in U.S. physical or financial assets
- Currency traders believing the value of the $US will rise
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supply for $US comes from
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firms, households and speculators want to obtain foreign currency and pay with US dollars
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what happens to $US when the exchange rate is too high?
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- surplus of $US
- rate will depreciate
- rate will depreciate
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changes in supply and demand for foreign exchange might result from
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- change in demand for US-produced goods and services relative to foreign ones
- change in desire to invest in US relative to other countries
- change in expectations of currency traders about likely future value of $ relative to foreign currencies
- change in desire to invest in US relative to other countries
- change in expectations of currency traders about likely future value of $ relative to foreign currencies
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what causes E to fluctuate?
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- 95-98% of international currency transaction volume results from speculation and worldwide trade in assets
- real interest rate
- real interest rate
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impact of real interest rate on E
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- when it increases in the US relative to the rest of the world
- the demand for US-denominated assets goes up
- demand for dollars goes up
- price of a dollar goes up
- the demand for US-denominated assets goes up
- demand for dollars goes up
- price of a dollar goes up
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real exchange rate (e)
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- the price of domestic goods in terms of foreign goods
- (PDom x E) / PFor
- (PDom x E) / PFor
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Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
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- the theory that, adjusting for E, the same goods should cost the same wherever in the world they are sold
- if true, e=1 always
- does not actually hold in most contexts (Big Mac Index)
- if true, e=1 always
- does not actually hold in most contexts (Big Mac Index)
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Big Mac Index
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- Tool for calculating purchasing power parity that compares prices of a Big Mac throughout the world
- found that PPP does not hold in most cases
- found that PPP does not hold in most cases
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if e>1
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- E is too high
- foreign currency is undervalued relative to the domestic currency
- foreign currency is undervalued relative to the domestic currency
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if e<1
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- E is too low
- foreign currency is overvalued relative to the domestic currency
- foreign currency is overvalued relative to the domestic currency
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2 reasons PPP does not always hold
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- many goods can't be easily traded and price differences can't be arbitraged away
- foreign and domestic goods are not perfect substitutes; price differences reflect differences in tastes
- foreign and domestic goods are not perfect substitutes; price differences reflect differences in tastes
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if 2 countries have different inflation rates, ____
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E will change over time
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net exports measures
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the imbalance in a country's trade in goods and services
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determinants of exports
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- real exchange rate
- GDP of our trading partners
- tastes and preferences of foreign buyers for our goods and services
- trade policies
- GDP of our trading partners
- tastes and preferences of foreign buyers for our goods and services
- trade policies
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real exchange rate and exports
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- when e goes up, X goes down
- when e goes down, X goes up
- when e goes down, X goes up
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determinants of imports
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- real exchange rate
- domestic GDP
- domestic tastes and preferences for foreign goods
- trade policies
- domestic GDP
- domestic tastes and preferences for foreign goods
- trade policies
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real exchange rate and imports
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- when e goes up, IM goes up
- when e goes down, IM goes down
- when e goes down, IM goes down
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real interest rate increase and net exports
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- increase in r leads to increased demand for US-denominated assets
- demand for $ increases
- E and e increase
- X decrease and IM increase
- NX decreases
- demand for $ increases
- E and e increase
- X decrease and IM increase
- NX decreases
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aggregate demand curve
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- relates the price level to aggregate expenditure on the economy's goods and services
- aggregate expenditure denotes a point on the curve
- aggregate expenditure denotes a point on the curve
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why does the AD curve slope down?
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1. wealth effect
2. interest rate effect
3. international trade effect
2. interest rate effect
3. international trade effect
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wealth effect
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- price level increases
- purchasing power of household wealth decreases
- thus, consumption spending decreases and AE decreases
- purchasing power of household wealth decreases
- thus, consumption spending decreases and AE decreases
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interest rate effect
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- when P increases, then r increases, increasing incentive to save and costs to borrow --> consumption spending decreases and AE decreases
- when P decreases, then r decreases, lowering incentive to save and costs to borrow --> consumption spending increases and AE increases
- when P decreases, then r decreases, lowering incentive to save and costs to borrow --> consumption spending increases and AE increases
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international trade effect
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- when PDom increases, e increases
- NX decreases
- AE decreases
- NX decreases
- AE decreases
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what shifts the AD curve?
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- government policies (monetary, fiscal)
- changes in expectations of households and firms
- changes in foreign variables
- changes in expectations of households and firms
- changes in foreign variables
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monetary policy
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- policies that affect interest rates by manipulating the monetary supply
- Federal Reserve
- when r increases, AD shifts left
- when r decreases, AD shifts right
- Federal Reserve
- when r increases, AD shifts left
- when r decreases, AD shifts right
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fiscal policy
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- policy that determines how the economy is managed as a result of government spending and taxes
- Congress, White House, Treasury Department
- Congress, White House, Treasury Department
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when E increases
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- e increases
- NX decreases
- AD shifts left
- NX decreases
- AD shifts left
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when E decreases
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- e decreases
- NX increases
- AD shifts right
- NX increases
- AD shifts right
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when YDom increases
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- imports increase
- NX decreases
- AD shifts left
- NX decreases
- AD shifts left
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when YDom decreases
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- imports decrease
- NX increase
- AD shifts right
- NX increase
- AD shifts right
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when YFor increases
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- X increases
- NX increases
- AD shifts right
- NX increases
- AD shifts right
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when YFor decreases
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- X decreases
- NX decreases
- AD shifts left
- NX decreases
- AD shifts left
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aggregate supply curve
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shows the relationship between the aggregate price level and the quantity of goods and services that firms are ready, willing and able to supply
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what determines an economy's capacity to produce in the long run?
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- capital stock
- labor
- technology
- labor
- technology
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T/F: in the long run, price level has nothing to do with growth
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true
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Long Run Aggregate Supply (LRAS)
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- The level of output to which an economy will always return in the long run
- The LRAS curve intersects the horizontal axis at the full employment or potential level of output
- same Y at every price level
- The LRAS curve intersects the horizontal axis at the full employment or potential level of output
- same Y at every price level
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Short Run Aggregate Supply (SRAS)
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- a curve that shows the relationship in the short run between the price level and the quantity of real GDP supplied by firms
- slope indicates degree of price flexibility
- slope indicates degree of price flexibility
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SRAS with completely fixed (sticky) prices
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firms cannot change prices so all goods and services must be supplied at the same P
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SRAS with completely flexible prices
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- contracts make some wages and prices sticky
- firms are often slow to adjust wages
- menu costs make some prices sticky
- firms are often slow to adjust wages
- menu costs make some prices sticky
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why does the SRAS curve slope up?
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- increases in the labor force and capital stock
- technological change
- technological change
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what causes both the LRAS and SRAS curves to shift?
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- expected changes in the future price level (e.g. charging higher prices due to expected higher costs)
- adjustments of workers and firms to errors in past expectations about the price level
- unexpected changes in the price of an important natural resource
- adjustments of workers and firms to errors in past expectations about the price level
- unexpected changes in the price of an important natural resource
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what causes only the SRAS curve to shift?
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- An unexpected decrease in the availability of a key resource that temporarily decreases productivity
- every level of GDP now associated with higher price level
- every level of GDP now associated with higher price level
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negative supply shock
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- An unexpected increase in the availability of a key resource that temporarily increases productivity
- firms can produce more efficiently and lower prices
- firms can produce more efficiently and lower prices
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positive supply shock
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- the economy is in this when the point of short-run macroeconomic equilibrium is on the long-run aggregate supply curve
- economy is producing everything it should based on normal factors
- unemployment at natural rate
- based on stable price level and meeting potential GDP
- economy is producing everything it should based on normal factors
- unemployment at natural rate
- based on stable price level and meeting potential GDP
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long-run macroeconomic equilibrium
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1. GDP is above its long-run level
2. unemployment is below the natural rate
3. prices are higher (inflation)
- SRAS shifts left to get back to LRAS
- new price level is higher, but stable
2. unemployment is below the natural rate
3. prices are higher (inflation)
- SRAS shifts left to get back to LRAS
- new price level is higher, but stable
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inflationary gap
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1. short-run GDP below potential GDP
2. unemployment above natural rate
3. decrease in price level
- SRAS shifts right to get back to LRAS
- new price level is lower and stable
2. unemployment above natural rate
3. decrease in price level
- SRAS shifts right to get back to LRAS
- new price level is lower and stable
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recessionary gap
answer
- led to a recessionary gap at the same time as rising inflation
- if the govt did nothing, businesses would lower prices and workers would work for lower wages until SRAS shifts down to get back to LRAS
- if the govt did nothing, businesses would lower prices and workers would work for lower wages until SRAS shifts down to get back to LRAS
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1970's: negative supply shock caused by OPEC oil embargo
answer
- characteristics of an inflationary gap (benefits) without actual inflation (harm)
- over time, businesses raise prices due to high demand and workers begin to demand higher wages, shifting SRAS up
- over time, businesses raise prices due to high demand and workers begin to demand higher wages, shifting SRAS up
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1990's: positive supply shock
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a curve that shows the short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment
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Phillips Curve
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- low unemployment w/ high inflation
- low inflation w/ high unemployment
- anything in between
- low inflation w/ high unemployment
- anything in between
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initially, the PC appeared to offer policymakers a menu of choices
answer
- in 1968, Friedman and Phelps argued the tradeoff was temporary and wouldn't hold
- natural rate hypothesis --> unemployment eventually returns to natural rate regardless of inflation
- since LRAS is vertical, it must also be vertical in the LR
- natural rate hypothesis --> unemployment eventually returns to natural rate regardless of inflation
- since LRAS is vertical, it must also be vertical in the LR
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development of the vertical long-run PC
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change in the natural unemployment rate
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what can shift the long run PC?
answer
- a measure of how much people expect the price level to change
- bridges the gap between long-run and short-run PCs
- along any given short-run PC, expected inflation is the same
- bridges the gap between long-run and short-run PCs
- along any given short-run PC, expected inflation is the same
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expected inflation
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where the long-run PC intersects the short-run PC
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where does actual inflation = expected inflation?
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- making inflation greater than expected
- only temporary
- only temporary
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how can monetary policy reduce the unemployment rate below the natural rate?
answer
natural unemployment rate
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nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU)
answer
undefined