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Stocks vs. Flows
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stocks are the amounts, flows are changes in the stock
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
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the market values of all final goods and services produced within a country within a year (or other period)
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Final Goods
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has reached its last consumer as a new good
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Intermediate Goods
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will go on to be part of production
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Circular Flow Diagram
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illustrates both the inflow and outflow to the loanable funds market. The net saving of households and net capital inflow from foreigners provide the inflow—the supply of funds—into the loanable funds market
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Income Approach
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Income (wages, rent, interest, profits) + indirect business taxes + depreciation + net income of foreigners
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Expenditure Approach
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Y = C + I + G + NX
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Per Capita GDP
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GDP / population
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nonmarket production
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some production that we do for ourselves doesn't show up in GDP
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Black and Grey Market Production
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doesn't show up in GDP!
Black Market: illegal stuff is sold
Grey Market: legal but unreported
Black Market: illegal stuff is sold
Grey Market: legal but unreported
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Leisure and Job Quality
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Jobs are more comfortable, more pleasant and safer than they used to be, but this is not fully reflected in GDP.
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Product Quality and New Goods
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improvements in quality are not reflected in GDP
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Economic "bads"
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(a thing that you would not want to consume, you would pay to avoid it) natural disasters and other harmful events don't make GDP go down, but fixing them can make it go up!
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Income inequality and poverty
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GDP and GDP per capita do not tell us how goods and services are distributed
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Price level
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the overall level of prices of goods and services. The price level in a stock, it's the level of prices.
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Inflation
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an increase in the price level. Inflation is a flow, it's a change in the prices
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Deflation
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a decrease in the price level ( when the overall price level goes down (a flow)
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Disinflation
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a decrease in the rate of inflation (the price level goes up more slowly ( a flow of a flow))
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Nominal GDP
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GDP measured using contemporaneous prices
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Real GDP
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GPD measured using prices from a base year
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GDP Deflator
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Nominal GDP/ Real GDP x 100
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CPI
- Calculating the inflation rate: %DX = (X new - Xold) / Xold
- Calculating the inflation rate: %DX = (X new - Xold) / Xold
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asks how much does it cost to buy that market basket today, compared to buying that same set of goods at some point in the past"?
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CPI overstates inflation because of
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- Improvements in product quality
- It doesn't account for changes in consumption due to prices.
- It doesn't account for changes in consumption due to prices.
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Calculating the inflation rate
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% change in X = (X new - Xold) / Xold
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Categories important for thinking about labor and employment
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The entire population
- The adult (16+) civilization noninstitutionalized population
- the unemployed
- the employed
- the labor force (employed + unemployed)
- The adult (16+) civilization noninstitutionalized population
- the unemployed
- the employed
- the labor force (employed + unemployed)
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Labor Force Participation Rate
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labor force / noninitialized adult civilian population
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Unemployment Rate
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unemployed / labor force
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Problems with the unemployment rate
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- Discouraged Workers
- Underemployment
- Underemployment
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Frictional unemployment
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"search" unemployment. It takes time to match workers with jobs
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Structural unemployment
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some workers become unemployed because their skills do not match current needs. (and those workers need to be retrained or find new work)
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Seasonal unemployment
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varies with seasonal events. We as economists, statistically remove this from the data
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Cyclical unemployment
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caused by economic slowdowns
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Natural Rate of Unemployment
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= Frictional + Structural
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Full Employment
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The level of employment when unemployment is at the natural rate.
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Potential GDP
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the value of output at full employment
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Expected inflation
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inflation that is expected
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Menu Costs
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the cost of updating price lists
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Shoeleather Costs
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the costs of frequent trips to the bank to withdraw and deposit money, so that it earns as much as possible
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Current U.S. capital gains taxes fall on nominal gains, deterring investment
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Are taxes on the sale and asset, based on nominal gains not real gains
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Unexpected inflation
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- Causes people to use resources to shield themselves from inflation
- The costs of unexpected inflation are worse under very high inflation, because higher inflation tends to be more variable for reasons we do not understand
- The costs of unexpected inflation are worse under very high inflation, because higher inflation tends to be more variable for reasons we do not understand
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The Loanable Funds Market
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A general term used to describe the market that coordinates the borrowing and lending decisions of business firms and households
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Fisher's Equation
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i = r + pie
r = real interest rates
i = nominal interest rates
r = real interest rates
i = nominal interest rates
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The Foreign Exchange Market
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The market in which the currencies of different countries are bought and sold
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Appreciation
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currency appreciates when it buys more of some other currency. It becomes stronger. (it increases in value)
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Depreciation
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a currency depreciates when it buys less of some other currency. It becomes "weaker". (it decreases in value
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Exports - Imports = Capital Outflow - Capital Inflow
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...
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Trade Deficit
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negative Net exports
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Trade Surplus
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positive net exports
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Leakages
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= injections
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Three uses of money:
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Medium of exchange
Unit of account
Store of Value
Unit of account
Store of Value
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Medium of exchange
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avoids the "Double Coincidence of wants problem"
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Unit of account
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Without unit of account you would not be able to do accounting
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Store of Value
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Gold has been useful a money as it lasts - bananas haven't
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Liquidity
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how close something is to cash
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Fiat Money
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money issued by government. Not backed by a commodity
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Commodity money
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backed by commodity (ie. Gold)
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Money Supply
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M0
Monetary Base
M1
M2
Monetary Base
M1
M2
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M0
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currency in circulation
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Monetary Base
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currency in circulation in bank vaults + reserves held on deposit at the federal reserve (more about federal reserve later)
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M1
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m0 + demand deposits (checking account) + travelers check
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M2
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m1 + savings accounts + time deposits less than $100,000 (ie you cant access it for 30 days) + (retail) money mutual fund accounts (accounts for which the money is invested in "money market" (ie loaded out on a very short-term basis, usually less than a year)
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The Federal Reserve (you don't need to know the bureaucratic details)
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It regulates banks,
Controls the supply of money
Controls the supply of money
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How Banks Create Money
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By lending it!
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The Money Multiplier (or Potential Deposit Expansion Multiplier)
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= 1/Reserve Ratio
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Fed tools to control money supply
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Reserve Requirement
Open Market Operations
Discount Rate
Interest on Reserves
Open Market Operations
Discount Rate
Interest on Reserves
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Reserve Requirement
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Unit 2020, the Fed required banks to maintain a minimum level of reserves. By increasing the requirement, the Fed reduces money creation
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Open Market Operations
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the Fed buys & sells government counties. Like Tredegar Bills (or bonds w/ interest, an IOU). In exchange, it gives or takes money. These changes increase or decrease money supply
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Discount Rate
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The Fed can make loans to banks. It charges the discount rate. By lowering the rate, the Fed increases the money supply
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Interest on Reserves
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as of 2008, the Fed can pay interests on deposits from other banks at the Fed
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Stocks
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M x V = P x Y
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Flows
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% change in M + % change in V = % change in P + % change in Y
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Economic Growth
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"expands the productive capacity of an economy"
Technically it can be defined as an increase in GDP, but what we really care about is Real Per Capita GDP.
Technically it can be defined as an increase in GDP, but what we really care about is Real Per Capita GDP.
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Rule of 70
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if something grows at X% per year it will double in 70 / Xyears
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Why do economies grow?
Bad, Better and Best answer....
Bad, Better and Best answer....
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Bad answer: Productivity growth
Better answers: Natural resources, physical and human capital, technological progress
Best answers: healthy economic Institutions
Better answers: Natural resources, physical and human capital, technological progress
Best answers: healthy economic Institutions
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Secure and well-defined private property rights
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If people can securely own things, they have an incentive to use them wisely.
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Rule of Law
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everyone knows what the law is and faces the same consequences for violating it.
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Competitive markets
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Competition disciplines firms, discouraging them from wasting resources
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Stable money/inflation
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allows us to avoid the cost of inflation, and allows people the plan better
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Low trade barriers
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avoiding tariffs and quotas means a country focuses on producing what it does best.
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Open capital markets
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countries that allow investments to flow in and out freely they grow faster.
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Avoidance of high marginal tax rates
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High marginal tax rates can discourage productive activity.
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Avoidance of harmful regulation
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some regulation can decrease productivity and discourage work.
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Economic Freedom is
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highly correlated with healthy institutions and economic growth
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Risk vs return
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Investments that have a higher rate of return have more risk, ceteris paribus. There is a trade off between risk and return. Riskier investment have a higher rate of return,
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Stocks
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ownerships shares of a corporation. Corporations raise funds by issuing stock. Some shares give voting rights, and some companies pay dividends. Stock prices are determined by supply and demand, and depends entirely on current and expected future profits.
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Bonds
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a promise to repay the principle amount borrowed plus interest at a specified time in the future
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The Efficient Markets Hypothesis
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asset prices reflect fundamental values because everyone is trying to make money on them. The day to day or movement of stock prices is therefore random.
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Index Funds and diversity
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index funds is basically, a list of stocks.
Diversity is buying a diverse portfolio of assets protects you from downside risk
Diversity is buying a diverse portfolio of assets protects you from downside risk
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Present and Future Value
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FV = PV (1 + r )^time