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Real GDP per capita
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is real GDP divided by the population size
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Real GDP
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used to separate changes in the quantity of goods and services from the effects of a rising price level.
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Real GDP per capita
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used to isolate the effect of changes in population
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GDP grew
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when the level of real GDP increases
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Rule of 70
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tells us that the time it takes a variable that grows gradually over time to double is approximately 70 divided by that variable's annual growth rate
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Rule of 70 formula
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number of years to double = 70/growth rate
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Real GDP per capita
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Is what economist use to measure economic progress
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China and India have higher growth rates than the U.S., but the typical Chinese or Indian household is poorer than the typical U.S. household because India and China have high growth rates.
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False, since they are not yet caught up, their living standard is still lower than the typical American household
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Labor productivity, or productivity
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output per worker
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Productivity
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simply GDP divided by the number of people working
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Physical capital
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consist of human-made resources such as buildings and machines
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Human capital
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improvement in labor created by the education and knowledge embodied in the workforce.
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Technological progress
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advance in the technical means of the production of goods and services
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The aggregate production function
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a hypothetical function that shows how productivity (real GDP per worker) depends on the quantities of physical capital per worker and human capital per worker as well as the state of technology
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diminishing returns to physical capital
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in an aggregate production function when the amount of human capital per worker and the state of technology are held fixed, each successive increase in the amount of physical capital per worker leads to a smaller increase in productivity.
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growth accounting
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estimates the contribution of each major factor in the aggregate production function to economic growth
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3% a year
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Amount of physical capital per worker growth
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total factor productivity
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the amount of output that can be achieved with a given amount of factor inputs
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The effect of technological progress, assuming that physical and human capital are unchanged, is to ________ in the rate of productivity.
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Increase. Significant technological progress will result in a positive growth rate of productivity even though physical capital per worker and human capital per worker are unchanged.
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What effect does an increase in physical capital per worker have on the rate of productivity, if human capital per worker and technology are unchanged?
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There is a decrease in the growth rate of productivity, but it remains positive due to diminishing returns to physical capital.
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why growth rates differ
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1. savings and investment spending
2. education
3. research and development
2. education
3. research and development
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research and development (R&D)
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is spending to create and implement new technologies
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infraestructure
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is the roads, power lines, ports, information networks, and other underpinnings for economic activity
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Government policies to promote economic growth
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1. Government subsidies to infrastructure
2. Government subsidies to education
3. Government subsidies to R&D
4. Mantaining a well-functioning financial system.
2. Government subsidies to education
3. Government subsidies to R&D
4. Mantaining a well-functioning financial system.
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Role of Government in Promoting economic growth
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1. government policies
2. protection of property rights
3. political stability and good governance
2. protection of property rights
3. political stability and good governance
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The New Growth Theory
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Founded by Paul Romer in the 1980's and 1990's. A theory of economic growth that examines the factors that determine why technology, research, innovation, and the like are undertaken and how they interact.
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True or False? Countries with low rates of domestic savings usually have the highest growth rates.
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False, a country with high domestic savings is able to achieve a high rate of investment spending as a percent of GDP. This allows the country to achieve a high growth rate.
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During the 1990s in the former U.S.S.R., a lot of property was seized and controlled by those in power. How might this have affected the country's growth rate?
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This would have decreased the country's growth rate.
The growth rate would fall because the lack of property rights would have dissuaded people from making investments in productive capacity.
The growth rate would fall because the lack of property rights would have dissuaded people from making investments in productive capacity.
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East Asia's spectacular growth was generated by
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high savings and investment spending rates, emphasis on education, and adoption of technological advances from other countries.
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major factors in the slow growth of Latin America.
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Poor education, political instability and irresponsible government policies
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In sub-Saharan Africa, severe instability, war and poor infrastructure resulted in
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catastrophic failure of growth. But economic performance in recent years has been much better than in preceding years.
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The convergence hypothesis (international differences in real GDP per capita tend to narrow over time)
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seems to hold only when other things that affect economic growth - such as education, infrastructure, property rights and so on - are held equal.
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True or False? It is impossible for the Asian economies to sustain their recent high rates of productivity growth.
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False, If Asian economies continue investing in human capital, if savings rates continue to be high, and if governments invest in infrastructure, productivity growth can continue at a high rate.
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standard of living
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It is the best predictor of future growth together with high rates of savings and investment.
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True or False? A policy that provides funding for basic infrastructure in Africa is the only factor needed for Africa to achieve economic growth.
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False, it also needs political and financial stability. Policies should address all areas.
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Is world growth sustainable?
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Long-run economic growth is sustainable if it can continue in the face of the limited supply of natural resources and the impact of growth on the environment
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Why the limits to growth arising from environmental degradation are more difficult to overcome ?
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because overcoming them requires effective government intervention.
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The emission of greenhouse gases is clearly ...
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linked to growth, and limiting them will require some reduction in growth.
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True or False? Economists are more concerned about the limits to growth imposed by resource scarcity than those imposed by environmental degradation.
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False. Economists are typically more concerned about environmental degradation than resource scarcity because the price response tends to alleviate the limits imposed by resource scarcity through conservation and the development of alternatives. Environmental degradation involves a negative externality, which must be addressed by effective government intervention.
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True or False? Economic growth results in increased greenhouse gas emissions, and reducing those emissions would severely limit economic growth.
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False. Growth does increase a country's greenhouse gas emissions, but most estimates indicate that a large reduction in emissions will result in only a modest decrease in growth.
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True or False? Both rich countries and emerging countries are willing to share the costs of reducing greenhouse emissions.
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False. The international burden of sharing emissions reduction is contentious because rich countries are reluctant to pay the costs of reducing their emissions only to see newly emerging countries like China rapidly increase their emissions. Yet most of the current accumulation of gases is due to the past actions of rich countries. Poorer countries are equally reluctant to sacrifice their growth to pay for the past actions of rich countries.
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Growth
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is measured as changes in real GDP per capita to eliminate the effects of changes in the price level and changes in population size. Levels of real GDP per capita vary greatly around the world.
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The key to long-run economic growth is
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rising labor productivity, or just productivity, which is output per worker.
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Increases in productivity arise from increases in
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physical capital per worker and human capital per worker as well as advances in technology.
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The aggregate production function shows
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how real GDP per worker depends on physical capital, human capital and technology.
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Growth is measured as
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changes in real GDP per capita to eliminate the effects of changes in the price level and changes in population size. Levels of real GDP per capita vary greatly around the world.
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According to the Rule of 70, the number of years it takes for real GDP per capita to double is
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equal to 70 divided by the annual growth rate of real GDP per capita.
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Other things equal, there are diminishing returns to physical capital:
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holding human capital per worker and technology fixed, each successive addition to physical capital per worker yields a smaller increase in productivity than the one before.
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Growth accounting
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estimates the contribution of each factor to a country's economic growth, has shown that rising total factor productivity is key to long-run growth. It is usually interpreted as the effect of technological progress.
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The large differences in countries' growth rates
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are largely due to differences in their rates of accumulation of physical and human capital as well as differences in technological progress.
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the convergence hypothesis fits the data only
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when factors that affect growth, such as education, infrastructure, and favorable policies and institutions, are held equal across countries.
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Economists generally believe that environmental degradation poses a greater challenge to
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sustainable long-run economic growth than does natural resource scarcity.
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The emission of greenhouse gases
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is clearly linked to growth, and limiting them will require some reduction in growth. However, the best available estimates suggest that a large reduction in emissions would require only a modest reduction in the growth rate.
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The aggregate demand curve
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shows the relationship between the aggregate price level and the quantity of aggregate output demanded by households (C), businesses (I), the government (G), and the rest of the world (X - IM).
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Agregate demand curve formula
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GDP=C+I+G+X-IM
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The aggregate demand curve
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The curve is downward-sloping due to the wealth effect of a change in the aggregate price level and the interest rate effect of a change in the aggregate price level.
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Two Reasons for the Downward Sloping Aggregate Demand Curve
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1. Wealth effect of a change in the aggregate price level
2. Interest rate effect of a change in the aggregate price level
2. Interest rate effect of a change in the aggregate price level
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Wealth effect of a change in the aggregate price level
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is the effect on consumer spending caused by the effect of a change in the aggregate price level on the purchasing power of consumer's assets.
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Interest rate effect of a change in the aggregate price level
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is when a rise in the interest rate reduces investment spending because the cost of borrowing is higher. It also reduces consumer spending because households save more of their disposable income.
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The aggregate demand curve shifts because of:
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changes in expectations
changes in wealth
the existing stock of physical capital
government policies like fiscal policy & monetary policy
changes in wealth
the existing stock of physical capital
government policies like fiscal policy & monetary policy
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A rise in the interest rate caused by a change in monetary policy causes:
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a leftward shift of the aggregate demand curve. A higher interest rate decreases investment and consumption at every price level, so the aggregate demand curve shifts to the left.
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A fall in the real value of money in the economy due to a higher aggregate price level causes:
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a movement up along the aggregate demand curve. As the price level rises, the real value of money holdings falls. This is the interest rate effect of a change in the aggregate price level: as the value of money falls people want to hold more money, so they borrow more and lend less. This increases interest rates and reduces consumer and investment spending. So this is a movement along the aggregate demand curve.
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Expectations of a poor job market next year causes:
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a leftward shift of the aggregate demand curve. The aggregate demand curve shifts to the left because expectations of a poor job market and lower incomes will reduce spending today.
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A fall in tax rates causes:
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a rightward shift of the aggregate demand curve.
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A rise in the real value of assets in the economy due to a lower aggregate price level causes:
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a movement down along the aggregate demand curve. As the price level falls, the real value of assets rises. This is the wealth effect of a change in the price level: as the value of assets rises, people will increase their consumption plans. This leads to higher consumption spending and a movement down the aggregate demand curve.
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A rise in the real value of assets in the economy due to a surge in real estate values causes:
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a rightward shift of the aggregate demand curve. The aggregate demand curve shifts because an increase in the value of assets due to an increase in real estate values raises consumer spending at any price level.
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The aggregate supply curve shows
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the relationship between the aggregate price level and the quantity of aggregate output in the economy.
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The short-run aggregate supply curve shows
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the relationship between the aggregate price level and the quantity of aggregate output supplied that exists in the short run, the time period when many production costs can be taken as fixed.
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The nominal wage
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is the dollar amount of the wage paid.
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Sticky wages
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are nominal wages that are slow to fall even in the face of high unemployment and slow to rise even in the face of labor shortages.
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Why are Some nominal wages are flexible in the short run ?
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because some workers are not covered by a contractor or agreement with employers.
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How the average nominal wage behave when there is a steep rise in unemployment?
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Falls
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How is the short-run aggregate supply curve despite complications?
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Upward sloping
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Why does the short-run aggregate supply curve shifts?
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Because of: changes in commodity prices, changes in nominal wages and changes in productivity.
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Factors that lead to changes in producers profits:
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changes in commodity prices, nominal wages and in productivity
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The long-run aggregate supply curve:
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shows the relationship between the aggregate price level and the quantity of aggregate output supplied that would exist if all prices, including nominal wages, were fully flexible
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Potential output
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the level of real GDP the economy would produce if all prices, including nominal wages, were fully flexible.
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Long-run economic growth
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growth that takes place over decades.
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A rise in CPI leads producers to increase output. This represents a:
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movement along the SRAS curve because the CPI, like the GDP deflator, is a measure of the aggregate price level of final goods and services in the economy.
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A fall in the price of oil leads producers to increase output. This represents a:
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Shift in the SRAS curve, because oil is a commodity. The SRAS curve will shift to the right because production costs are lower now, leading to a higher quantity of output supplied at any given price level.
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A rise in legally mandated retirement benefits paid to workers leads producers to reduce output. This represents a:
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Shift in the SRAS curve, because it involves a change in nominal wages. An increase in benefits to workers is equivalent to an increase in nominal wages. As a result the SRAS curve will shift leftward because production cost are now higher, leading to a lower quantity of aggregate output supplied at any given aggregate price level.
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Assume that an economy is initially at potential output. The aggregate output supplied increases due to an increase in aggregate price level. This represents a:
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Movement along the SRAS curve. If the prices level and the quantity of output supplied both increase, this is caused by a movement along the SRAS.
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The AS-AD Model
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uses the aggregate supply curve and the aggregate demand curve together to analyze economic fluctuations
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Short-run macroeconomic equilibirium.
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The economy is in __________________ when the quantity of aggregate output supplied is equal to the quantity demanded.
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short-run equilibrium aggregate price level
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the aggregate price level in the short-run macroeconomic equilibrium
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short-run equilibrium aggregate output
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is the quantity of aggregate output produced in the short-run macroeconomic equilibrium
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Demand shock
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is an event that shifts the aggregate demand curve.
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Supply shock
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is an event that shifts the short-run aggregate supply curve.
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Stagflation
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is the combination of inflation and falling aggregate output.
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long-run macroeconomic equilibrium
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when the point of short-run macroeconomic equilibrium is on the long-run aggregate supply curve
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recessionary gap
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when aggregate output is below potential output
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Inflationary gap
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when aggregate output is above potential output
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output gap
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is the percentage difference between actual aggregate output and potential output
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output gap formula
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((actual aggregate output - potential output)/potential output) X 100
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The economy is self-correcting when
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shocks to aggregate demand affect aggregate output in the short run but not in the long run
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The AD-AS model says that:
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either a negative demand shock or a positive supply shock should lead to a fall int he aggregate price level, that is, deflation.
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Recessions are mainly caused by:
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Demand shocks
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What happens when a negative supply shock does happen?
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Recession tends to be particularly severe. This is because macroeconomic policy has a much harder time dealing with supply shocks than with demand shocks.
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The government sharply increases the minimum wage, raising the wages of many workers. This causes a(n) ______ in output as measured by real GDP and a(n) ______ in the price level.
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decrease; increase. An increase in the minimum wage raises the nominal wage and shifts the short-run aggregate supply curve to the left. As a result of this negative supply shock, output decreases and the price level increases.
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Solar energy firms launch a major program of investment spending. This causes a(n) ______ in output as measured by real GDP and a(n) ______ in the price level.
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Increase; increase. Increased investment increases aggregate demand, which causes an increase in output and the price level.
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Congress raises taxes and cuts spending. This causes a(n) ______ in output as measured by real GDP and a(n) ______ in the price level.
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Decrease; decrease. Higher taxes and less government spending decrease aggregate demand, which causes a decrease in both output and the price level.
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Severe weather destroys crops around the world. This causes a(n) ______ in output as measured by real GDP and a(n) ______ in the price level.
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Decrease; increase. This is a negative supply shock which decreases short-run aggregate supply. The decrease in SRAS decreases output and increases the price level.
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True or False? A rise in productivity increases potential output, but demand for the additional output will be insufficient in the long run.
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False. As long-run growth increases potential output, the long-run aggregate supply curve shifts to the right. If, in the short run, there is now a recessionary gap, nominal wages will fall, shifting the SRAS to the right. As prices fall, we move down the aggregate demand curve until actual output is equal to potential output
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Stabilization policy
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is the use of government policy to reduce the severity of recessions and rein in excessively strong expansions
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policy in the face of supply shocks
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there are no easy policies to shift the short-run aggregate supply curve.
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Policy dilemma
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a policy that counteracts the fall in aggregate output by increasing aggregate demand will lead to higher inflation, but a policy that counteracts inflation by reducing aggregate demand will deepen the output slump.
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Sir John Maynar Keynes
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Father of macroeconomics
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Has the economy actually become more stable since the government began trying to stabilize it?
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Yes
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"Expansionary monetary or fiscal policy does nothing but temporarily over stimulate the economy—you have a brief high, but then you have the pain of inflation." Which statement below best describes how the AS-AD model represents this statement?
a) The policy causes the AD curve to shift to the right, causing aggregate price and output to rise. After a period of time nominal wages rise, shifting the AS curve to the left until output falls back to potential output.
b) The policy causes a movement along the AD curve which increases prices. After time the prices fall back to their initial levels.
c) The policy causes the AS curve to shift to the right causing prices and output to rise. After a period of time nominal wages rise and output falls back to potential output but prices remain elevated.
a) The policy causes the AD curve to shift to the right, causing aggregate price and output to rise. After a period of time nominal wages rise, shifting the AS curve to the left until output falls back to potential output.
b) The policy causes a movement along the AD curve which increases prices. After time the prices fall back to their initial levels.
c) The policy causes the AS curve to shift to the right causing prices and output to rise. After a period of time nominal wages rise and output falls back to potential output but prices remain elevated.
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The policy causes the AD curve to shift to the right, causing aggregate price and output to rise. After a period of time nominal wages rise, shifting the AS curve to the left until output falls back to potential output.
If expansionary monetary or fiscal policy is implemented when the economy is in long-run macroeconomic equilibrium, then aggregate demand increases to create an inflationary gap, with higher output and prices. Eventually nominal wages will increase and shift the SRAS to the left, returning output to potential output.
If expansionary monetary or fiscal policy is implemented when the economy is in long-run macroeconomic equilibrium, then aggregate demand increases to create an inflationary gap, with higher output and prices. Eventually nominal wages will increase and shift the SRAS to the left, returning output to potential output.
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True or False? In 2008, after the collapse of the housing bubble and the sharp rise in the price of commodities, especially oil, the appropriate policy for the Fed was to lower interest rates.
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Uncertain. Those within the Fed who advocated lowering interest rates were focused on boosting aggregate demand in order to counteract the negative demand shock caused by the collapse of the housing bubble. Lowering interest rates will result in a rightward shift of the aggregate demand curve, increasing aggregate output, but raising the aggregate price level. Those within the Fed who advocated holding interest rates steady were focused on the fact that fighting the slump in aggregate demand in the face of a negative supply shock could result in a rise in inflation. Holding interest rates steady relies on the ability of the economy to self-correct in the long run, with the aggregate price level and aggregate output only gradually returning to their levels before the negative supply shock.