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Labor force(L)
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The sum of employment and unemployment
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Employment (N)
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The number of people who have a job
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Unemployment (U)
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The number of people who don't have a job, and have last looked for work during the last 4 weeks, and are available for work.
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π’πππππππ¦ππππ‘ πππ‘π
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ππππππππ¦ππππ‘/πΏππππ πΉππππ
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πΈπππππ¦ππππ‘ ππππ’πππ‘πππ πππ‘ππ
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πΈπππππ¦ππππ‘/ πΆππ£πππππ ππππππ π‘ππ‘π’π‘πππππππ§ππ ππππ’πππ‘πππ
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Discouraged worker
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Would like to be employed
Has given up searching
No longer counted as unemployed, rather not in the labor force
Has given up searching
No longer counted as unemployed, rather not in the labor force
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Inflation Rate
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the rate at which the price level increases
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Deflation
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decrease in the price level
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calculating πΌπππππ‘πππ πππ‘π
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πΆπ’πππππ‘ πππππ πΏππ£ππ β ππππ£πππ’π πππππ πΏππ£ππ/ ππππ£πππ’π πππππ πΏππ£ππ
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πΊπ·π ππππππ‘ππ ππ π¦πππ π‘
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πππππππ πΊπ·π ππ π¦πππ π‘/π
πππ πΊπ·π ππ π¦πππ π‘
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Computing the inflation rate
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Calculate GDP deflator and use percentage change formula
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Consumer Price Index (CPI)
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Measures the average price of consumption or cost of living
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calculating CPI
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πΆππΌt= πΆππ π‘ ππ π΅ππ πππ‘t/ πΆππ π‘ ππ π΅ππ πππ‘base
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Calculate the inflation rate using the percentage change formula
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πΆππΌtβ πΆππΌt-1/πΆππΌt-1
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CPI vs GDP deflator differ due to...
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Imported goods not included in GDP deflator
Example: oil
Investment goods not included in CPI calculations
Example: tractor
Example: oil
Investment goods not included in CPI calculations
Example: tractor
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Trouble With Inflation
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All prices don't increase at the same rate
Affects real wages
Affects relative prices
Affects real wages
Affects relative prices
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Okun's Law
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the negative relationship between output growth and unemployment
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Phillips curve
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the negative relationship between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate
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Consumption includes...
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Goods - tangibleβ’
Nondurablesβ’
Durablesβ’
Services - intangibleβ’
Rent or imputed rent
Nondurablesβ’
Durablesβ’
Services - intangibleβ’
Rent or imputed rent
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Investment
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Does NOT refer to stocks and bonds
Mostly purchase by businesses
Or consumers for business purposes
New homes are included
Inventory Investment
Inventories are remainder of what is produced that is not sold
Can be positive or negative
Mostly purchase by businesses
Or consumers for business purposes
New homes are included
Inventory Investment
Inventories are remainder of what is produced that is not sold
Can be positive or negative
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Government Spending
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Government consumption and investment purchases...
National defense
Public employees
Roads
Bridges
National defense
Public employees
Roads
Bridges
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govt spending does NOT include
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taxes and transfers!
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Net Exports
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the difference between exports and imports
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Trade balance = Exports - Imports
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Exports > Imports is a trade surplus
Imports > Exports is a trade deficit
Imports > Exports is a trade deficit
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Demand for Goods
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π β‘ C + I + G + (X β IM)
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demand for goods assumptions
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Firms produce identical goods
Firms supply any amount of the good at price level P
Closed economy, no foreign consumption or production
Firms supply any amount of the good at price level P
Closed economy, no foreign consumption or production
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Consumption decisions depend on:
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Disposable Income πΆ = πΆ(YD)
Necessities
Consumer's feelings about the future
Necessities
Consumer's feelings about the future
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Consumption (C)
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πΆ = π0+ π1(πD)
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Investment (I) and variables
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Two types of variables in the model---
Exogenous - determined outside of the model
Endogenous - determined within the model
Exogenous - determined outside of the model
Endogenous - determined within the model
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Government Spending (G)
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Fiscal policy
Combination of G and T
T affects disposable income
Government spending (G) and taxes less transfers (T) are exogenous
Combination of G and T
T affects disposable income
Government spending (G) and taxes less transfers (T) are exogenous
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Equilibrium
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Production equals demand for goods equals supply of goods
π = π
π = π
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Output increases by the multiplier times
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the initial increase in spending
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dynamics allow for
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inventories!
Increase in demand doesn't lead to increase in production
Firms draw down inventories first
Slow adjustment
Increase in demand doesn't lead to increase in production
Firms draw down inventories first
Slow adjustment
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Private Savings (S)
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Income less taxes plus transfers less consumption
π β‘ π β π β πΆ
π β‘ π β π β πΆ
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Public Savings
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Taxes minus transfers less government spending
T β G
T β G
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Investment and Saving
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π=πΆ+Μ
πΌ+Μ
πΊ
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marginal propensity to save
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(1 β π1)
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Private Saving Equation
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π=βπ0+(1βc1)(πβπ)
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Revisiting Marginal Propensity to Consume
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Lower income, higher marginal propensity to consume
Higher income, lower marginal propensity to consume
Higher income, lower marginal propensity to consume
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Consumption depends positively on disposable income
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An increase in consumption creates a multiplier effect
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Money
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medium of exchange, used to pay for transactions
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income
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labor earnings plus interest income and dividends
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saving
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part of disposable income that you do not consume
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Financial wealth
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financial assets minus financial liabilities
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investment
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purchase of new capital goods
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Financial investment
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purchase of shares of stock or assets other than investment
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Choice between holding bonds and holding money
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Split depends on two things ....
Transactions
Interest rate
Transactions
Interest rate
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Role of the central bank
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Central bank is the institution that manages monetary policy Control money supply through open market operations
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Central bank Expansionary policy
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Increase money supply by buying bonds
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Central bank contractionary policy
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Decrease money supply by selling bonds
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Interest rates and bond prices are related
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The interest rate should equal the return of the bond
Principal minus price divided by the price
Bonds with a higher price have a lower return Bond prices and interest rates are negatively related
Principal minus price divided by the price
Bonds with a higher price have a lower return Bond prices and interest rates are negatively related
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Central bank money
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Currency - demanded by people
Reserves - demand by banks
Reserves - demand by banks
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Discount rate
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rate at which banks can borrow from the Fed
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Zero lower bound
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the rate at which the nominal interest rate cannot fall below
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Liquidity trap
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interest rate is too low, monetary policy doesn't work
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Money demand is negatively correlated with the interest rate
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The interest rate represents the opportunity cost of holding money
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Central bank controls monetary policy
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Through open market operations (In old limited reserves framework)
Through administered rates (In new ample reserves framework)
Through administered rates (In new ample reserves framework)
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In limited reserve framework buying bonds increases the money supply and lowers the federal funds rate
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Selling bonds decreases the money supply and increases the federal funds rate
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Bond prices and interest rates are
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negatively related
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Investment depends on...
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Sales, or output π
Interest rate, π
Interest rate, π
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Investment positively related to sales
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If demand is high, firms produce more
If demand is low, firms produce less
If demand is low, firms produce less
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Investment negatively related to the interest rate
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Interest rate is the cost of borrowing
Higher cost of borrowing, firms borrow less
Lower cost of borrowing, firms borrow more
Higher cost of borrowing, firms borrow less
Lower cost of borrowing, firms borrow more
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rewriting output-- Demand for goods is an increasing function of output
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Consumption increases with output
Investment increases with output
Investment increases with output
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what causes a shift in the IS curve
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fiscal policy....
- taxes T
- government spending G
consumer confidence c0
- taxes T
- government spending G
consumer confidence c0
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if u increase taxes, what happens to IS curve?
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shift left
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how does modern monetary policy work
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Fed adjusts the money supply to target an interest rate
Fed increases money supply in the case where real income increases
Fed increases money supply in the case where real income increases
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IS Curve:
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Equilibrium in the goods market
π=πΆ(πβπ)+πΌ(π,π)+Μ πΊ
π=πΆ(πβπ)+πΌ(π,π)+Μ πΊ
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LM Curve:
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Equilibrium in financial markets
π=Μ π€
π=Μ π€
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budget deficit
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G-T
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Shifts in IS Curve due to Fiscal Policy
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Fiscal contraction (or consolidation) means a decrease in the budget deficit
- Decrease spending
- Increase taxes
Fiscal expansion means an increase in the budget deficit
- Increase spending
- Decrease taxes
- Decrease spending
- Increase taxes
Fiscal expansion means an increase in the budget deficit
- Increase spending
- Decrease taxes
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Shifts in LM Curve due to Monetary Policy
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Monetary expansion means to lower the interest rate
- Shift the LM curve down
- Increase the money supply
Monetary contraction or tightening means to raise the interest rate
- Shift the LM curve up
- Decrease the money supply
- Shift the LM curve down
- Increase the money supply
Monetary contraction or tightening means to raise the interest rate
- Shift the LM curve up
- Decrease the money supply
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Monetary policy expansion leads to
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a fall in the interest rate
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federal funds rate
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the rate that banks charge other banks when they lend excess reserves
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limited reserve regime
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primary monetary policy tool is open market operations: buying and selling gov't bonds
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ample reserve regime
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primary monetary tool is interest on reserve balances (IORB), supply monetary policy tool is overnight reserve repurchase agreement (ONRRP)
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in an ample reserve framework, expansionary policy looks like
answer
decrease in IORB, decrease in ONRRP, decrease discount rate
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in an ample reserves framework, contractionary policy looks like
answer
increase OIRB, increase ONRRP, increase discount rate