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Business cycle
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Recurrent rises and falls in real GDP over a period of years
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Business cycle consists of 4 phases:
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Peak, recession, trough, and recovery
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Recession
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Generally defined as at least 2 consecutive quarters of real GDP decline
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Expansion
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During which real GDP rises
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Peak
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Occurs when real GDP reaches its maximum level during a recovery
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Economic growth
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measured by the annual percentage change in real GDP in a nation
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Leading, coincident, and lagging indicators
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economic variables that change before, at the same time as, and after changes in real GDP, respectively
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Unemployment rate
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is the ratio of the number of unemployed to the number in the civilian labor force multiplied by 100
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Civilian labor force
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consists of people who are employed plus those who are out of work but are seeking employment
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Discouraged workers
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a reason critics say the unemployment rate is understated. People who want to work but have given up searching for work.
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Types of unemployment
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Frictional, structural, and cyclical unemployment
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Frictional unemployment
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seeking for new jobs that exist
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structural unemployment
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long-term unemployment caused by factors in the economy, including lack of education, technological change, and globalization
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cyclical unemployment
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unemployment resulting from insufficient aggregate demand
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full employment
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occurs when the unemployment rate is equal to the total of the frictional and structural unemployment rates
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GDP gap
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the difference between actual real GDP and full employment, or potential real GDP. / Also measures the loss of output due to cyclical unemployment
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The phase of the business cycle follows a recession
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trough
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A general rule is that economy is experiencing a recession when
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real GDP declines for at least six months
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The increase in unemployment associated with a recession is called
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cyclical unemployment
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what stage of the business cycle immediately follows the trough
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expansion
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Inflation
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an increase in the general (average) price level of goods and services in the economy
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deflation
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a decrease in the general level of prices
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Consumer price index (CPI)
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most widely known price-level index. it measures the cost of purchasing a market basket of goods and services by a typical household during a time period relative to the cost of the same bundle during a base year
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Equation:
Annual rate of inflation =
Annual rate of inflation =
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CPI in a given year - CPI in previous year
__________________________________________ x 100
CPI in previous year
__________________________________________ x 100
CPI in previous year
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Disinflation
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a reduction in the inflation rate. ( DOES NOT MEAN THAT PRICES WERE FALLING, ONLY THAT THE INFLATION RATE FELL )
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Inflation rate
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determined by the CPI is criticized bc
1) it is not representative
2) it has difficulty adjusting for quality changes
3) it ignores the relationship between price changes and the importance of items in the market basket
1) it is not representative
2) it has difficulty adjusting for quality changes
3) it ignores the relationship between price changes and the importance of items in the market basket
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Nominal income
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income measured in actual money amounts. Measuring your purchasing power requires converting nominal income into real income
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real interest rate
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the nominal interest rate adjusted for inflation ex. if real interest rates are negative, lenders incur losses
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adjustable-rate mortgage
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home loan that adjusts the nominal interests rate to changes in an index rate, such as rates on treasury securities
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demand-pull inflation
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caused by pressure on prices originating from the buyers' side of the market.
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cost-push inflation
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caused by pressure on prices originating from the sellers' side of the market
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hyperinflation
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can disrupt an economy by causing inflation psychosis, credit market collapses, a wage-price spiral, ad speculation
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wage-price spiral
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occurs when increases in nominal wages cause higher prices, which, in turn, cause higher wages and prices
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Inflation is defined as an increase in
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the average price level
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Inflation is measured by an increase in
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the consumer price index (CPI)
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Who benefits from inflation?
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Borrowers
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Prices indexes such as the CPI are calculated using a base year. the term base year refers to
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an arbitrarily chosen reference year
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Suppose the price of banana rises over time and consumers respond by buying fewer bananas. This situation contributes to which bias in the consumer price index?
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substitution bias
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The real interest rate is defined as the
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nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate
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What can create demand-pull inflation?
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excessive aggregate spending
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Cost-push inflation is due to
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labor cost increases
energy cost increases
raw material cost increases
energy cost increases
raw material cost increases
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During periods of hyperinflation, what would most likely be the response of consumers?
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spend money as fast as possible
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The base year in the consumer price index (CPI) is
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a year chosen as a reference for prices in all other years
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If the rate of inflation is a given time period turns out to be lower than lenders and borrowers anticipated, then the effect will be a
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redistribution of wealth from borrowers to lenders
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John Maynard Keynes
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rejected the classical theory that the economy self-corrects in the long run to full employment
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Keynesian theory
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aggregate demand, rather than the classical economists focus on aggregate supply.
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aggregate spending
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adequate, the economy can experience prolonged and severe unemployment
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Say's Law
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the classical theory that "supply creates its own demand" and therefore the Great Depression was impossible.
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Say's Law is
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the theory that the value of production generates an equal amount of income and, in turn, total spending.
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Classical economists rejected the argument that underconsumption is possible bc...
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they believed flexible prices, wages, and interest rates would soon establish a balance between supply and demand
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consumption function (C)
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determined by changes in the level of real disposable income
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autonomous consumption
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consumption that occurs even if real disposable income equals zero
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marginal propensity to consume (MPC)
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the change in consumption associated with a given change in real disposable income. It tells how much of an additional dollar of disposable income households will spend for consumption
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marginal propensity to save (MPS)
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the change in saving associated with a given change in real disposable income. It measures how much of an additional dollar of disposable income households will save
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Investment demand curve (I)
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shows the amount of business spend for investment goods at different possible rates of interest. The determinants of this schedule are the expected rate of profit and rate of interest. Shifts in the investment demand curve result from changes in expectations, technology, capacity utilization, and business taxes.
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autonomous expenditures
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spending that does not vary with the current level of disposable income. The Keynesian model applies this simplifying assumption to investment. As a result, the investment demand curve is a fixed amount determined by the rate of profit and the interest rate.
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The popular theory prior to the Great Depression that the economy will automatically adjust to achieve full employment in the long run is
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classical economists
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If the economy is experiencing less than full equilibrium, the Keynesian school recommends that the gov't
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undertake fiscal policy to stimulate aggregate
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Keynesian theory argues that
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the economy is inherently unstable and may require gov't intervention to control aggregate expenditures and restore full employment
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Investment, government spending and net exports
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can be treated as autonomous expenditures
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Equation:
the aggregate expenditures function (AE)
the aggregate expenditures function (AE)
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add consumption (C), investment (I), government spending (G), and net exports (X-M)
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Keynesian aggregate expenditures model
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determines the equilibrium level of real GDP by the intersection of the aggregate expenditures and the aggregate output and income curves
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Each equilibrium level in the economy is associated with
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a level of employment and corresponding unemployment rate
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aggregate expenditures and real GDP are equal
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AE = C + I + G+ (X - M) line intersects the 45 degree line
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Spending multiplier
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is the ratio of the change in equilibrium output to the initial change in any of the components of aggregate expenditures.
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Recessionary gap
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the amount by which aggregate expenditures fall short of the amount necessary for the economy to operate at full-employment real GDP.
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Tax multiplier
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the multiplier by which an initial change in taxes changes aggregate demand (total spending) after an infinite number of spending cycles.
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Inflationary gap
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the amount by which aggregate expenditures exceed the amount necessary to establish full-employment equilibrium and indicates upward pressure on prices.
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Aggregate demand curve
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shows the level of real GDP purchased in the economy at different price levels during a period of time
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reasons why the aggregate demand curve is downward sloping:
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1) real balances effect is the impact on real GDP caused by the inverse relationship between the purchasing power of fixed value financial assets and inflation, which causes a shift in the consumption schedule
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reasons why the aggregate demand curve is downward sloping:
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2) The interest-rate effect assumes a fixed money supply; therefore inflation increases the demand for money. As demand for money increases, the interest rate rises, causing consumption and investment spending to fall.
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reasons why the aggregate demand curve is downward sloping:
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3) the net exports effect is the impact on real GDP caused by the inverse relationship between net exports and inflation. An increase in the US price level tends to reduce US exports and increase imports, vice versa
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aggregate supply curve
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shows the level of real GDP that an economy will produce at different possible price levels.
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The aggregate supply curve has 3 ranges:
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1) Keynesian range
2) Intermediate range
3) Classical range
2) Intermediate range
3) Classical range
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Keynesian range of the curve
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horizontal because neither the price level nor production costs will increase or decrease when there is substantial unemployment in the economy
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Intermediate range
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both prices and costs rises as real GDP rises toward full employment
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Classical range
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Vertical segment of the aggregate supply curve. It coincides with the full-employment output.
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Aggregate demand and aggregate supply analysis
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determines the equilibrium price level and the equilibrium real GDP by the intersection of the aggregate demand and aggregate supply curves
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Stagflation
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exists when an economy experiences inflation and unemployment simultaneously. Holding aggregate demand constant, a decrease in aggregate supply results in the unhealthy condition of a rise in the price level and a fall in real GDP and employment
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cost-push inflation is
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inflation that results from a decrease in the aggregate supply curve while the aggregate demand curve remains fixed.
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cost-push inflation is..
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undesirable because it is accompanied by declines in both real GDP and employment
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demand-pull inflation is
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inflation that results from an increase in the aggregate demand curve in both the classical and the intermediate ranges of the aggregate supply curve, while the aggregate supply curve is fixed
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upward-sloping shape of the short-run aggregate supply curve (SRAS)
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the result of fixed nominal wages and salaries as the price level changes
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vertical shape of the long-run aggregate supply curve (LRAS)
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the result of nominal wages and salaries eventually changing by the same percentage as the price level changes
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increase in aggregate demand (AD) in the long run
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causes the short-run aggregate supply curve (SRAS) to shift leftward bc nominal income rises and the economy self-corrects to a higher price level at full-employment real GDP
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decrease in aggregate demand in the long run
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causes short-run aggregate supply curve (SRAS) to shift rightward bc nominal income falls and the economy self-corrects to a lower price level at full-employment real GDP
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Economic growth in potential real GDP
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represented by a rightward shift in the long-run aggregate supply curve (LRAS) Shifts in LRAS are cause by changes in resources ad advances in technology
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Fiscal policy
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the use of gov't spending and taxes to stabilized the economy
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discretionary fiscal policy
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follows the Keynesian argument that the fed gov't should manipulate aggregate demand in order to influence the output, employment, and price levels in the economy. Requires new legislation to change either gov't spending or taxes in order to stabilize the economy
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spending multiplier (SM)
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the multiplier by which an initial change in the one component of aggregate demand, for ex., gov't spending alters aggregate demand (total spending) after an infinite number of spending cycles.
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Equation:
SM=
SM=
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1/(1 - MPC)
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expansionary fiscal policy
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a deliberate increase in gov't spending, a deliberate decrease in taxes, or some combination of these two options
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contractionary fiscal policy
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same as expansionary fiscal policy
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tax multiplier
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the change in aggregate demand (total spending) that results from an initial change in taxes after an infinite number of spending cycles. (TM) = 1 - SM
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combating recession and inflation
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can be accomplished by changing gov't spending or taxes. total change in aggregate demand= the change in gov't spending x SM
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balanced budget multiplier
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not neutral. a dollar gov't spending increases real GDP more than a dollar cut in taxes
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budget surplus
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occurs when gov't revenues exceed gov't expenditures
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budget deficit
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occurs when gov't expenditures exceed gov't revenues
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automatic stabilizers
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changes in taxes and gov't spending that occur automatically in response to changes in the level of real GDP
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supply-side fiscal policy
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lower taxes encourage work, saving, and investment, which shift the aggregate supply curve right-ward as a result, output and employment increase without inflation
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Laffer curve
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represents the relationship between the income tax rate and the amount of income tax revenue collected by the gov't