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Causal forecasting
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A quantitative forecasting method that attempts to uncover functional relationships between independent variables and the dependent variable.
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Compound growth rate
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Forecasting by projecting the average growth rate of the past into the future.
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Delphi method
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A form of expert opinion forecasting that uses a series of written questions and answers to obtain a consensus forecast, where experts do not meet
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Econometric forecasting model
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A quantitative, casual method that uses a number of independent variables to explain the dependent variable to be forecast.
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Economic indicators
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A barometric method of forecasting in which economic data are formed into indexes to reflect the state of the economy.
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Exponential smoothing
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A smoothing method of forecasting that assigns greater importance to more recent data than those in the more distant past.
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Jury of executive opinion
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A forecast generated by experts (corporate executives) in meetings. A similar method is to ask the opinion of sales representatives who are exposed to the market on a daily basis.
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Moving average method
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A smoothing technique that compensates for seasonal fluctuations.
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Naive forecasting
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Quantitative forecasting that projects past data without explaining the reasons for future trends.
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Opinion polls
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A forecasting method in which sample populations are surveyed to determine consumption trends.
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Qualitative forecasting
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Forecasting based on the judgement of individuals or groups. Also called judgmental forecasting.
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Quantitative forecasting
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Forecasting that examines historic data as a basis for future trends. (data and equations)
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Seasonal indices
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A method for describing the seasonal variation in a time series.
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Surveys of spending plans
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Examinations of economic trends such as consumer sentiment and inventory.
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Time series forecasting
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A method of forecasting from past data by using least squares statistical methods. A time series analysis usually examines trends, cyclical fluctuations, seasonal fluctuations, and irregular movements.
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Trend projections
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A form of naive forecasting that projects trends of data.
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