Australian School of BusinessFinancial Statement Analysis
Class 9: Equity Security Analysis
Course structure – recap
Business
analysis
Accounting
analysis
Financial
analysis
• How does your business make money?
• Industry conditions + firm-specific strategy
• How is business strategy reflected in the financial statements?
• Opportunities and incentives for manipulation
• Analyse recent performance
• Identify key ratios, within a structure (e.g., Alternative DuPont)
• Forecasting – how will future performance differ from current/recent
• Structure – sales, then how items vary with respect to sales
Prospective
• Focus on key items
analysis
Valuation
• Using forecasts in a systematic way
• Dividends / Cash flows / Earnings
• Assess growth / profitability implications of current price
Equity Security Analysis
1. What is Equity Security Analysis?
2. Market Efficiency
a) What does market efficiency mean?
b) Forms of market efficiency
c) Evidence on market efficiency
3. Approaches to Equity Security Analysis
a) Fundamental analysis
b) Quantitative analysis
4. Investment Industry
– Financial analysts
– Fund managers
1) What is Equity Security Analysis?
• Evaluation of prospects from the perspective of current or potential
investors.
• Part of investment process:
– Establish investment objectives
• Risk tolerance, investment horizon, constraints
– Form expectations about future returns and risks
– Determine asset allocation
– Select securities to construct portfolios
– Evaluate portfolio performance
A. What Constitutes Investment?
• Benjamin Graham defined investment as follows
– “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis
promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not
meeting these requirements are speculative”
• The three criteria for investments are
– Thorough analysis of the underlying business before you buy a
stock
– Protect yourself against serious losses
– Aspire to ‘adequate’ not extraordinary performance
• Speculation
– Gamble that a stock will go up (down) in price because somebody
else will pay even more (less) for it
A. What Constitutes Investment Cont’d
• Investments vs. Speculation
– Investors judge market price by established standards of value
– Speculator based standards of value upon on market price
• Nothing wrong with speculation, but do it intelligently
– Don’t think you are investing when you are speculating
– Speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack
knowledge and skills
– Risking more money than you can afford to lose.
• Bottom line
– Don’t put your speculative and investment in the same account or in
any part of your thinking!
2) Market Efficiency
• Efficient Market Hypothesis
– Financial market is “informationally” efficient, i.e., stock prices
quickly and fully reflect all the available information.
• Available information includes
– All known information (share prices, earnings, etc.)
– Information that can be reasonably inferred (expected inflation,
interest rate changes, etc.)
2(a) Concept of Market Efficiency
Overreaction to
(good) news
P
Delayed response to
(good) news
T0
T1
Time
2(b) Forms of Market Efficiency
• Weak Form
– Prices reflect prior price
movements and trading
volume
• Semi-Strong Form
– Prices reflect all publicly
available information
• Strong Form
– Prices reflect all
information, both public
and private
Strong from
(all information –
public and
private)
Semi-strong
form
(public
information)
Weak form
(past prices)
2(c) Evidence for Market Efficiency
• Market reacts quickly to information release
– Earnings announcements, analyst recommendation changes, stock
split, etc
– Prices adjust in a few minutes
• Professional fund managers are unable to generate consistent
abnormal returns after transaction costs and fees
– It is hard to beat the market
2(c) Arguments against Market Efficiency
• Market efficiency cannot be in equilibrium
– If prices reveal all information, investors have no incentives to
acquire information, then no information will be reflected in prices.
• Arbitrage will not exist if price is always right
– Arbitrage and mispricing must go side by side
• Arbitrage is costly
– It involves capital and risks
– Arbitrageurs have short time horizon
2(c) Evidence against Market Efficiency
• Excessive trading volume and volatility
– Market efficiency implies little trading
• Buyers will consider why sellers want to sell
– But we observe huge trading volume every day!
• Under-reaction to corporate events
– Prices drift after earnings announcements, SEOs, share
repurchases, etc.
• Returns are predictable
– Short-term momentum and long-term reversal
– Value stocks (low P/E, P/B) outperform glamour stocks
– Small stocks outperform large stocks
• Tests of market efficiency are joint tests of EMH and asset pricing
model.
2(c) A Balanced View
• Market is neither completely efficient, nor completely inefficient.
• Financial market is more efficient than goods market.
• Both mispricing and arbitrage exist
2(c) A Balanced
View
• Market is neither
completely
efficient, nor
completely
inefficient.
• Financial market
is more efficient
than goods
market.
• Both mispricing
and arbitrage
exist
The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in
Memory of Alfred Nobel addresses this!
• The Prize Committee has put together a very useful summary of Fama,
Shiller and Hansen’s work. I’ve put a copy up on Moodle.
•
(3) Approaches to Equity Security Analysis
• Fundamental analysis
• Analyze firms’ fundamentals
• Forecast firms’ prospect
• Quantitative analysis
• Technical analysis
– Read price charts and identify “indicators”
• Statistical analysis
– Screen stocks based on some statistics
– Model stock prices
3(a) Fundamental Analysis
• Evaluate stock prices based on projections of future earnings and cash
flows.
• Involves all that we learn in this course
– Business strategy analysis
– Accounting analysis
– Financial analysis
– Prospective analysis
– Valuation
• Projections are based on historical data and current information
• Often called a “bottom-up” approach
3(b) Quantitative Analysis
• “Top down” approach
• Technical Analysis
– Based on historical share price
– Attempts to predict short-term price movement
– A large number of “technical” rules
• Moving average
• Support and resistance levels
• Statistical Analysis
– Use regressions and historical data to screen stocks
– Use mathematical models to predict share price and interest
rates
(4) Investment Industry
• Financial Analysts
– Sell-side and buy-side analysts
– Specialize in one industry and a few firms
– Issue earnings forecasts and stock recommendations
• Fund Managers
– Decide on asset allocation
– Construct fund portfolios
– Monitor and rebalance portfolios
(4) Financial Analysts
• Analysts’ earnings forecasts are better than time-series forecasts of
earnings (for short forecast periods – < 2years).
• Revisions in analyst earnings forecasts and stock recommendations
have value
– Prices adjust quickly to revisions
– Prices continue to drift in the direction of revisions
• Conflicts of interests: Analysts may issue biased (over-optimistic)
recommendations in order to
– Generate trading volume for brokerage house
– Gain access to private information from managers
– Win investment banking business
From Bradshaw et al (2012) “A reexamination of analysts’ superiority...”
Review of Accounting Studies
25
(4) Fund Managers
• Approaches to invest
– Passive vs. Active management
– Style investing
– Size, value, growth, momentum
– Mutual funds and hedge funds
• Market timing and stock picking
• Fund returns are compared with benchmark returns
• Managers tend to “herd”
– React to common information
– Hide in the crowd
(4) Many different funds available
John Sevior – quoted in The Australian
•
"I remember going back over the data at the time and observing that in the 15
years I had been in the industry, up to when Aussie Super made the changes,
only two fund managers had a top-10 finish in more than one five-year period and
only seven managers had top-10 finishes in more than one three-year period.
•
"And just in the last three and five-year periods, only seven out of 50 odd
managers in the surveys achieved alpha (excess return) of 250 basis points or
more over both periods. I think 250 basis points (pre fees) of alpha is the
minimum required to have a sustainable active equities business.”
• John Sevior
28
(4) Fund Managers
• Little evidence shows that fund managers can consistently beat their
benchmarks
– Which benchmark to choose?
– Average performers vs. stars
• Implications for investors
– Invest in a well diversified fund
– Pick experienced managers with good track record
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
$194.92
Tesla, Inc.
TSLA 88160R101 B616C79 NASDAQ
Source: FactSet Fundamentals
Common stock
Sales
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) incl. D&A
COGS excluding D&A
Depreciation & Amortization Expense
Depreciation
Amortization of Intangibles
Amortization of Deferred Charges
Gross Income
SG&A Expense
Research & Development
Other SG&A
Other Operating Expense
EBIT (Operating Income)
Nonoperating Income - Net
Nonoperating Interest Income
Equity in Earnings of Affiliates
Reserves Increase (Decrease)
Other Income (Expense)
Interest Expense
Gross Interest Expense
Interest Capitalized
Unusual Expense - Net
Impairments
Goodwill
Other Intangibles
Property,Plant & Equipment
Financial Fixed Assets
Exceptional Provisions
Restructuring Expense
Legal Claim Expense
Unrealized Valuation Gain/Loss
Investments
Investment Property
Biological Assets
Hedges/Derivatives
Other Intangibles
DEC '09 DEC '10 DEC '11 DEC '12
112
117
204
413
102
86
143
383
95
75
126
354
7
11
17
29
10
61
19
42
0
-52
-1
0
0
31
178
93
85
0
-147
-6
0
0
62
313
209
104
0
-251
0
0
0
-1
3
3
0
-7
1
2
1
0
0
5
5
3
30
424
274
150
0
-394
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
8
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-3
-2
-3
-2
Excpl Chrgs - Others
Restructuring of Debt
Early termination of Contracts costs (Income)
Acquired In-Process R&D
Calamitous Events
Accelerated Depreciation
Other Unusual Expense
Pretax Income
Income Taxes
Income Taxes - Current Domestic
Income Taxes - Current Foreign
Income Taxes - Deferred Domestic
Income Taxes - Deferred Foreign
Income Tax Credits
Equity in Earnings of Affiliates
Other After Tax Adjustments
Consolidated Net Income
Minority Interest
Net Income
Discontinued Operations
Preferred Dividends
Net Income available to Common
Per Share
EPS (recurring)
EPS (basic)
Basic Shares Outstanding
Total Shares Outstanding
EPS (diluted)
Diluted Shares Outstanding
Total Shares Outstanding
Earnings Persistence
Dividends per Share
Payout Ratio
EBITDA
EBITDA
EBIT
Depreciation & Amortization Expense
All figures in millions of U.S. Dollar except per share items.
Profit before Income Tax
Income Taxes
Profit after income Tax
Net interest expense after tax
-56
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-154
0
0
-254
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-56
0
-56
0
0
-56
-154
0
-154
0
0
-154
-254
0
-254
0
0
-254
-396
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-396
0
-396
0
0
-396
-0.04
-0.11
-0.17
-0.25
1,402.18
1,402.18
-0.04
1,402.18
1,402.18
1,423.63
1,423.63
-0.11
1,423.63
1,423.63
21.49
0.00
1,505.83
1,567.95
-0.17
1,505.83
1,567.95
67.55
0.00
1,610.24
1,713.21
-0.25
1,610.24
1,713.21
67.19
0.00
-45
-52
7
-136
-147
11
-235
-251
17
-365
-394
29
-55.714 -154.155 -253.922 -396.077
0.026
0.173
0.489
0.136
-55.740 -154.328 -254.411 -396.213
2.373
0.735
-0.212
-0.034
NOPAT
Interest expense
Interest income
Net interest expense
x (1 - tax expense/pre-tax income)
Net interest expense after tax
-53.367 -153.593 -254.623 -396.247
2.531
0.159
2.372
1.000
2.373
0.992
0.258
0.734
1.001
0.735
0.043
0.255
-0.212
1.002
-0.212
0.254
0.288
-0.034
1.000
-0.034
DEC '13 DEC '14 DEC '15
DEC '16 DEC '17
DEC '18
DEC '19
DEC '20 DEC '21
2,013
3,198
4,046
7,000
11,759
21,461
24,578
31,536
53,823
1,557
2,317
3,123
5,446
9,542
17,419
20,509
24,906
40,217
1,451
2,085
2,700
4,499
7,906
15,518
18,355
22,584
37,306
106
232
423
947
1,636
1,901
2,154
2,322
2,911
1,910
1,001
0
0
456
882
924
1,554
2,217
4,042
4,069
6,630
13,606
518
1,102
1,699
2,245
3,855
4,295
3,989
4,636
7,110
232
499
777
834
1,378
1,460
1,343
1,491
2,593
286
604
922
1,410
2,477
2,834
2,646
3,145
4,517
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-61
-220
-775
-691
-1,638
-253
80
1,994
6,496
12
3
-40
69
-107
25
129
-56
178
0
1
2
9
20
25
44
30
56
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
2
-42
60
-127
0
85
-86
122
22
101
119
199
471
663
685
748
371
26
114
160
246
596
718
716
796
424
4
13
42
47
125
55
31
48
53
0
0
-74
-7
114
189
36
-40
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-67
0
0
135
149
0
-27
11
0
7
7
22
-40
-36
13
7
7
22
-40
-36
13
11
0
11
11
-71
3
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
-74
0
-74
0
0
-74
-318
-24
0
9
0
0
34
0
0
-294
0
-294
0
0
-294
-934
-46
1
10
0
2
59
0
0
-889
0
-889
0
0
-889
-746
27
1
54
0
-28
0
0
0
-773
-98
-675
0
0
-675
-2,209
32
-8
43
0
-4
0
0
0
-2,241
-279
-1,961
0
0
-1,961
-1,005
58
2
24
0
32
0
0
0
-1,063
-86
-976
0
0
-976
-665
110
5
86
-4
23
0
0
0
-775
87
-862
0
0
-862
1,154
292
4
248
0
40
0
0
-31
831
141
690
0
0
690
6,343
699
9
839
0
-149
0
0
5
5,649
125
5,524
0
0
5,524
-0.04
-0.16
-0.46
-0.34
-0.79
-0.35
-0.27
0.22
1.62
1,791.32
1,846.36
-0.04
1,791.32
1,846.36
79.26
0.00
1,868.09
1,885.31
-0.16
1,868.09
1,885.31
51.37
0.00
1,923.03
1,971.37
-0.46
1,923.03
1,971.37
61.51
0.00
2,163.18
2,423.41
-0.31
2,163.18
2,423.41
59.97
0.00
2,486.37
2,531.95
-0.79
2,486.37
2,531.95
77.85
0.00
2,557.87
2,589.04
-0.38
2,557.87
2,589.04
83.84
0.00
2,655.00
2,715.00
-0.32
2,655.00
2,715.00
87.19
0.00
2,799.00
2,880.00
0.21
3,249.00
2,880.00
84.48
0.00
0.00
2,958.00
3,099.00
1.63
3,387.00
3,099.00
79.23
0.00
0.00
45
-61
106
11
-220
232
-353
-775
423
257
-691
947
-2
-1,638
1,636
1,648
-253
1,901
2,234
80
2,154
4,316
1,994
2,322
9,407
6,496
2,911
-71.426 -318.436
2.588 -24.396
-74.014 -294.040
22.740
92.117
-934.224 -746.348 -2,209.032 -1,004.745
-45.561
26.698
31.546
57.837
-888.663 -773.046 -2,240.578 -1,062.582
111.620 197.087
458.022
675.295
-665.000 1,154.000 6,343.000
110.000 292.000 699.000
-775.000 862.000 5,644.000
747.030 536.322 280.287
-51.274 -201.923
-777.043 -575.959 -1,782.556
-387.287
-27.970 1,398.322 5,924.287
22.134
0.189
21.945
1.036
22.740
118.851
1.508
117.343
0.951
111.620
663.071
24.533
638.538
1.058
675.295
685.000
44.000
641.000
1.165
747.030
100.886
1.126
99.760
0.923
92.117
198.810
8.530
190.280
1.036
197.087
471.259
19.686
451.573
1.014
458.022
748.000
30.000
718.000
0.747
536.322
371.000
56.000
315.000
0.890
280.287
DEC '22
81,462
60,609
56,862
3,747
2,420
1,327
0
20,853
7,021
3,075
3,946
0
13,832
228
297
0
0
-69
191
191
0
150
0
0
176
26
26
13,719
1,132
62
1,266
27
-223
0
0
27
12,614
31
12,583
0
0
12,583
3.65
3,130.00
3,164.00
3.62
3,475.00
3,164.00
71.65
0.00
0.00
17,579
13,832
3,747
13,719.000
1,132.000
12,587.000
-97.254
Pretax Income
Income Taxes
12,489.746
191.000
297.000
-106.000
0.917
-97.254
Interest Expense
Nonoperating Interest Income
Tesla, Inc.
TSLA 88160R101 B616C79 NASDAQ
Source: FactSet Fundamentals
Common stock
DEC '08
Assets
Cash & Short-Term Investments
Cash Only
Total Short Term Investments
Short-Term Receivables
Accounts Receivables, Net
Accounts Receivables, Gross
Bad Debt/Doubtful Accounts
Other Receivables
Inventories
Finished Goods
Work in Progress
Raw Materials
Progress Payments & Other
Other Current Assets
Prepaid Expenses
Miscellaneous Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Net Property, Plant & Equipment
Property, Plant & Equipment - Gross
Buildings
Land & Improvements
Machinery & Equipment
Construction in Progress
Leases
Computer Software and Equipment
Leased Property
Transportation Equipment
Other Property, Plant & Equipment
Operating Lease Right-of-Use Assets
Accumulated Depreciation
Buildings
Land & Improvements
Machinery & Equipment
Construction in Progress
Leases
Computer Software and Equipment
Leased Property
Transportation Equipment
Other Property, Plant & Equipment
Total Long-Term Investments
LT Investment - Affiliate Companies
Other Long-Term Investments
Long-Term Note Receivable
Intangible Assets
Goodwill
Other Intangible Assets
Deferred Tax Assets
Other Assets
Deferred Charges
DEC '09
9
9
0
3
3
3
70
70
0
3
3
3
0
17
8
4
5
0
2
0
23
7
3
10
3
4
2
31
19
26
4
101
24
36
3
5
5
20
28
7
13
1
0
1
0
4
0
4
0
0
3
Tangible Other Assets
Total Assets
Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity
Current
ST Debt & Curr. Portion LT Debt
Accounts Payable
Income Tax Payable
Other Current Liabilities
Dividends Payable
Accrued Payroll
Miscellaneous Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Long-Term
Long-Term Debt
Long-Term Debt excl Lease Obligations
Capital and Operating Lease Obligations
Provision for Risks & Charges
Deferred Tax Liabilities
Other Liabilities
Deferred Tax Liability-Untaxed Reserves
Other Liabilities (excl. Deferred Income)
Deferred Income
Total Liabilities
Non-Equity Reserves
Equity
Preferred Stock (Carrying Value)
Redeemable Preferred Stock
Non-Redeemable Preferred Stock
Preferred Stock issues for ESOP
ESOP Guarantees - Preferred Stock
Common Equity
Common Stock Par/Carry Value
Additional Paid-In Capital/Capital Surplus
Retained Earnings
ESOP Debt Guarantee
Cumulative Translation Adjustment/Unrealized For. Exch. Gain
Unrealized Gain/Loss Marketable Securities
Revaluation Reserves
Other Appropriated Reserves
Unappropriated Reserves
Treasury Stock
Repurchased Stock Value
Total Shareholders' Equity
Accumulated Minority Interest
Total Equity
Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity
Per Share
Book Value per Share
Tangible Book Value per Share
All figures in millions of U.S. Dollar except per share items.
Operating Working Capital
Long Term Operating Assets
0
52
3
130
0
14
2
72
11
60
88
0
15
0
42
0
2
39
57
55
55
1
1
0
1
5
4
0
148
2
5
0
2
2
63
2
101
101
0
0
0
-200
0
5
-205
0
0
0
0
319
319
0
0
0
-254
0
7
-261
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-99
0
-99
52
66
0
66
130
-0.14
-0.14
-0.18
-0.18
-65.444
13.388
-26.267
23.432
Net Operating Assets
-52.056
-2.835
Net Debt
Equity
46.480
-98.536
-52.056
-68.537
65.702
-2.835
Operating Working Capital
Long Term Operating Assets
Total Current Assets - Cash & Short-Term
Net PPE + Total Long Term Investments +
Net Debt
Equity
ST Debt & Curr. Portion LT Debt + Long-T
Total Shareholder's Equity
DEC '10
DEC '11
DEC '12
DEC '13
DEC '14
DEC '15
DEC '16
DEC '17
DEC '18
173
173
0
7
7
7
304
279
25
10
10
10
221
221
0
27
27
27
849
849
0
49
49
49
1,924
1,924
0
227
227
227
1,220
1,220
0
169
169
169
3,499
3,499
0
499
499
499
3,523
3,523
0
515
515
515
3,878
3,878
0
949
949
949
0
45
20
5
16
5
11
0
50
26
4
12
8
9
0
269
63
25
164
18
8
0
340
69
43
229
0
28
0
954
397
56
500
95
0
1,278
477
164
637
0
125
0
2,067
1,017
234
817
0
194
0
2,264
1,014
243
1,006
0
268
0
3,113
1,582
297
1,235
0
366
11
236
123
145
9
373
310
342
227
12
11
125
2,792
5,195
5,766
461
60
2,246
693
366
8,306
19,691
22,886
4,047
59
8
9
95
3,199
2,596
2,972
154
49
721
572
268
6,571
20,492
22,436
2,517
26
28
1,266
1,121
1,281
68
45
322
76
194
6,259
15,037
16,055
1,079
26
8
525
562
623
51
26
396
75
795
2,147
1,256
2,542
1,398
807
22
13
42
402
99
850
176
1,791
276
3,134
395
4,117
487
2,090
42
66
39
325
526
338
8,623
11,609
14,057
22
32
61
160
376
571
1,018
1,944
3,195
5
0
5
0
23
0
23
0
0
0
0
5
0
5
6
0
6
11
0
11
32
0
32
14
0
14
14
0
14
0
0
0
0
774
0
268
506
376
0
376
898
0
442
457
422
60
362
820
0
398
422
351
68
282
8
6
8
6
10
7
43
36
217
1
273
572
23
75
23
386
1
713
2
1,114
2
2,417
8
5,849
75
8,092
217
22,664
273
28,655
572
29,740
0
29
3
54
0
7
47
86
9
56
1
125
0
9
116
191
55
303
10
171
0
16
155
539
8
304
38
325
0
27
299
675
632
778
634
916
697
0
54
643
2,107
1,266
0
87
1,179
2,816
1,206
1,860
153
2,608
0
219
2,389
5,827
979
2,390
186
4,120
0
378
3,742
7,675
2,711
3,404
349
3,528
0
449
3,079
9,992
72
72
0
271
268
3
411
401
10
15
1,850
1,807
44
97
2,284
2,065
219
1,294
7,386
5,901
1,485
2,210
11,152
8,829
2,323
2,309
11,116
8,410
2,706
413
21
24
825
610
1,905
15
9
989
0
533
292
4,879
58
164
446
7,004
0
1,336
0
447
889
16,759
0
1,887
15
6
179
0
27
0
20
7
489
0
599
586
13
0
7
469
0
278
191
1,750
0
662
1,225
23,023
0
855
1,050
23,426
0
0
0
0
0
0
207
0
622
-415
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
224
0
893
-669
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
125
0
1,190
-1,066
0
0
0
0
0
0
667
0
1,807
-1,140
0
0
0
0
0
0
912
0
2,345
-1,434
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,089
0
3,415
-2,322
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,753
0
7,774
-2,997
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,237
0
9,178
-4,974
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,923
0
10,249
-5,318
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-4
0
0
-24
0
0
33
0
0
-8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
207
0
207
386
224
0
224
713
125
0
125
1,114
667
0
667
2,417
912
0
912
5,849
1,089
0
1,089
8,092
4,753
1,152
5,905
22,664
4,237
1,395
5,632
28,655
4,923
1,390
6,314
29,740
0.15
0.15
0.14
0.14
0.07
0.06
0.36
0.35
0.48
0.48
0.55
0.55
1.96
1.81
1.67
1.51
1.90
1.77
-22.555
129.051
-113.321
313.711
-180.118
550.500
-250.218 -200.041 -609.776 -1,860.466 -3,648.625 -2,852.798
675.315 1,670.404 3,397.370 12,858.771 17,888.558 19,115.504
106.496
200.390
370.382
425.097 1,470.363 2,787.594 10,998.305 14,239.933 16,262.706
-100.552
207.048
106.496
-23.655
224.045
200.390
245.682
124.700
370.382
-242.023 558.653 1,698.650 5,093.180 8,607.611 9,949.102
667.120 911.710 1,088.944 5,905.125 5,632.322 6,313.604
425.097 1,470.363 2,787.594 10,998.305 14,239.933 16,262.706
ent Assets - Cash & Short-Term Investments - Total Current Liabilities + ST Debt & Curr. Portion LT Debt
Total Long Term Investments + Intangible Assets + Deferred Tax Assets + Other Assets - Provision for risks and charges - Deferred Tax Li
Curr. Portion LT Debt + Long-Term Debt - Cash & Short-Term Investments
eholder's Equity
DEC '19
DEC '20
DEC '21
DEC '22
6,514
6,514
0
1,324
1,324
1,324
19,622
19,622
0
1,886
1,886
1,886
18,052
17,921
131
1,913
1,913
1,913
22,479
16,547
5,932
2,952
2,952
2,952
0
3,552
1,356
362
1,834
0
713
0
4,101
1,666
493
1,942
0
1,108
0
5,757
1,277
1,089
3,391
0
1,378
0
12,839
3,475
2,385
6,979
0
2,647
713
12,103
20,199
25,062
3,024
1,108
26,717
23,375
29,893
3,662
1,378
27,100
31,176
39,867
4,675
2,647
40,917
36,635
48,134
7,751
1,493
764
1,811
1,621
2,188
5,559
2,579
4,263
595
2,853
856
3,537
1,414
5,284
2,072
6,075
15,115
1,218
4,863
16,848
1,558
6,518
18,731
2,016
8,691
22,831
2,563
11,499
663
0
270
393
537
198
339
613
0
279
334
520
207
313
522
0
223
299
1,717
200
1,517
657
0
377
280
593
194
399
807
923
1,616
3,536
807
34,309
923
52,148
1,616
62,131
3,536
82,338
2,070
3,771
611
4,215
0
466
3,749
10,667
2,459
6,051
777
4,961
0
654
4,307
14,248
1,957
10,025
1,122
6,601
0
906
5,695
19,705
1,987
15,255
1,235
8,232
0
1,026
7,206
26,709
12,627
10,402
2,225
581
1,117
1,207
26,199
0
10,888
8,513
2,375
519
151
2,663
0
1,379
1,284
28,469
0
6,916
4,254
2,662
133
24
3,770
0
1,718
2,052
30,548
0
3,761
1,029
2,732
51
82
5,837
0
3,033
2,804
36,440
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,618
0
12,737
-6,083
0
0
0
0
0
0
22,225
1
27,260
-5,399
0
0
0
0
0
0
30,189
1
29,803
331
0
0
0
0
0
0
44,704
3
32,177
12,885
0
0
0
-36
0
0
363
0
0
54
0
0
-361
0
0
0
0
6,618
1,492
8,110
34,309
22,225
1,454
23,679
52,148
30,189
1,394
31,583
62,131
44,704
1,194
45,898
82,338
2.44
2.24
7.72
7.54
9.74
9.19
14.13
13.94
2,324
-3,008.000 -4,694.000 -8,700.000 -6,284.000
19,301.000 22,098.000 31,104.000 35,451.000
16,293.000 17,404.000 22,404.000 29,167.000
8,183.000 -6,275.000 -9,179.000 -16,731.000
8,110.000 23,679.000 31,583.000 45,898.000
16,293.000 17,404.000 22,404.000 29,167.000
ks and charges - Deferred Tax Liabilities - Other liabilities - Non-equity reserves
Tesla, Inc.
TSLA 88160R101 B616C79 NASDAQ
Source: FactSet Fundamentals
Common stock
DEC '09
Operating Activities
Net Income / Starting Line
Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization
Depreciation and Depletion
Amortization of Intangible Assets
Deferred Taxes & Investment Tax Credit
Deferred Taxes
Investment Tax Credit
Interest paid on Lease Liabilities - Operating
Other Funds
Funds from Operations
Extraordinaries
Changes in Working Capital
Receivables
Inventories
Accounts Payable
Income Taxes Payable
Other Accruals
Other Assets/Liabilities
Net Operating Cash Flow
Investing Activities
Capital Expenditures
Capital Expenditures (Fixed Assets)
Capital Expenditures (Other Assets)
Net Assets from Acquisitions
Sale of Fixed Assets & Businesses
Purchase/Sale of Investments
Purchase of Investments
Sale/Maturity of Investments
Other Funds
Other Uses
Other Sources
Net Investing Cash Flow
Financing Activities
Cash Dividends Paid
Common Dividends
Preferred Dividends
Change in Capital Stock
Repurchase of Common & Preferred Stk.
Sale of Common & Preferred Stock
Proceeds from Sale of Stock
Proceeds from Stock Options
Issuance/Reduction of Debt, Net
Change in Current Debt
Change in Long-Term Debt
Issuance of Long-Term Debt
Reduction in Long-Term Debt
Change in Other Debt
Repayments of Operating Lease Liabilities
Interest paid on Lease Liabilities - Financing
DEC '10
DEC '11
DEC '12
-55.7
6.9
6.9
-154.3
10.6
10.6
-254.4
16.9
16.9
-396.2
28.8
28.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.5
-43.3
0.0
-37.5
-0.2
-7.9
0.9
27.1
-116.6
0.0
-11.2
-3.2
-20.1
-0.2
34.2
-203.3
0.0
88.9
-2.8
-13.6
31.9
58.5
-308.9
0.0
42.8
-17.3
3.4
-33.7
-80.8
13.3
-1.0
-127.8
12.3
61.2
-114.4
9.6
-137.3
-266.1
-11.9
-11.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.4
-2.4
0.0
-14.2
-105.4
-105.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-74.9
25.1
-100.0
-180.3
-197.9
-197.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
-25.0
65.0
40.0
46.9
-3.2
50.1
-175.9
-239.2
-239.2
0
0
0
132
0
132
132
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
270
0
270
269
1
72
0
72
72
0
0
0
0
242
0
242
231
11
204
0
204
204
0
0
0
0
246
0
246
221
25
173
0
173
189
-16
187.8
0.0
0.0
23.7
16.3
40.0
8.6
0.0
8.6
-206.9
Other Funds
Other Uses
Other Sources
Net Financing Cash Flow
All Activities
Exchange Rate Effect
Miscellaneous Funds
Net Change in Cash
Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow per Share
Free Cash Flow Yield (%)
All figures in millions of U.S. Dollar except per share items.
23
-2
25
155
0.0
60.4
-92.7
-0.1
-4
-4
338
446
0
0
0
420
0.0
29.9
-233.2
-0.2
-9.23
0.0
155.7
-312.3
-0.2
-10.89
0.0
0.0
-53.4
-505.3
-0.3
-13.90
DEC '13
DEC '14
DEC '15
DEC '16
DEC '17
DEC '18
DEC '19
-74.0
106.1
103.3
2.8
0.0
0.0
-294.0
231.9
228.9
3.0
0.0
0.0
-888.7
422.6
422.6
-773.0
947.1
-2,240.6
1,636.0
-1,062.6
1,901.1
-775.0
2,154.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
133.9
166.0
0.0
92.0
-21.9
-463.3
-0.2
261.6
199.5
0.0
-256.8
-183.7
-1,050.3
252.8
434.9
-31.2
0.0
-493.3
46.3
-1,573.9
263.3
396.0
570.0
0.0
-693.9
-213.1
-2,465.7
750.6
1,040.5
435.9
0.0
-496.6
-24.6
-1,701.4
388.2
66.6
510.9
258.0
162.1
562.2
-57.3
771.0
-524.5
1,234.3
-123.8
-264.2
-264.2
-969.9
-969.9
-1,634.9
-1,634.9
-1,440.5
-1,440.5
-12.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
14.8
0.0
14.8
-249.4
-16.7
205.8
189.1
-3.8
-3.8
0.0
-990.4
-26.4
26.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1,673.6
415.1
-189.5
206.1
16.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1,214.9
0
0
0
631
0
631
415
216
22
0
22
660
-638
0
0
0
490
0
490
0
490
1,685
0
1,685
2,300
-615
0
0
0
857
0
857
750
107
684
0
684
888
-204
0
0
0
1,866
0
1,866
1,702
164
1,718
0
1,718
3,623
-1,904
DEC '20
DEC '21
DEC '22
0.0
0.0
862.0
2,322.0
2,271.0
51.0
0.0
0.0
5,644.0
2,911.0
1,910.0
1,001.0
0.0
0.0
12,587.0
3,747.0
2,420.0
1,327.0
0.0
0.0
1,201.4
2,039.9
0.0
58.0
-496.7
-1,238.0
1,722.9
1,375.0
2,754.0
0.0
-349.0
-367.0
-1,193.0
682.0
2,575.0
5,759.0
0.0
184.0
-652.0
-1,494.0
2,102.0
2,424.0
10,979.0
0.0
518.0
-130.0
-1,709.0
4,578.0
2,298.0
18,632.0
0.0
-3,908.0
-1,124.0
-6,465.0
6,029.0
841.2
-60.7
69.8
2,097.8
529.0
2,405.0
228.0
5,943.0
-2,221.0
11,497.0
-2,348.0
14,724.0
-4,081.4
-4,081.4
0.0
-114.5
789.7
-223.1
223.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-3,629.3
-2,319.5
-2,319.5
-17.9
437.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1,900.3
-1,437.0
-1,432.0
-5.0
-45.0
279.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
46.0
0.0
46.0
-1,157.0
-3,242.0
-3,232.0
-10.0
-13.0
24.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
123.0
0.0
123.0
-3,108.0
-8,014.0 -7,172.0
-6,514.0 -7,163.0
-1,500.0
-9.0
0.0
-45.0
2.0
0.0
-132.0 -5,813.0
132.0
5,835.0
0.0
22.0
278.0
1,012.0
0.0
0.0
278.0
1,012.0
-7,866.0 -12,018.0
0
0
0
712
0
712
400
312
3,386
0
3,386
7,649
-4,264
0
0
0
296
0
296
0
296
89
0
89
6,176
-6,087
0
0
0
1,285
0
1,285
848
437
798
0
798
10,669
-9,871
0
0
0
12,686
0
12,686
12,269
417
-2,494
0
-2,494
9,707
-12,201
0
0
0
707
0
707
0
707
-5,741
0
-5,741
8,874
-14,615
0
0
0
541
0
541
0
541
-3,866
0
-3,866
0
-3,866
-17
-17
0
635
-32
-35
3
2,143
-17
-17
0
1,524
0.0
0.0
644.0
-6.2
0.0
-0.03
-35.5
0.0
1,059.8
-1,027.2
-0.5
-3.71
-34.3
0.0
-708.8
-2,159.3
-1.1
-7.02
-41
-41
-248
-248
0
137
-833
-833
0
1,250
-243
-243
-171
-171
-157
-157
3,542
-473
-760
287
3,625
9,949
-5,205
-3,482
-7.4
0.0
2,196.3
-1,564.3
-0.7
-5.08
39.5
0.0
-25.3
-4,142.0
-1.7
-8.03
-22.7
0.0
311.4
-221.7
-0.1
-0.39
8.0
0.0
2,506.0
973.0
0.4
1.31
334.0
0.0
13,118.0
2,711.0
0.8
0.35
-183.0
0.0
-1,757.0
4,983.0
1.5
0.42
-444.0
0.0
-1,220.0
7,561.0
2.2
1.77
DEC '09 DEC '10 DEC '11 DEC '12 DEC '13 DEC '14
Sales
112
117
204
413
2,013
3,198
Net Income
-56
-154
-254
-396
-74
-294
average Equity
-16.417 136.375 215.5465 174.3725
395.91 789.415
average Total Assets
91
258
550
914
1,766
4,133
NOPAT
-53.3669 -153.593 -254.623 -396.247 -51.2739 -201.923
average Net Operating Assets
-27.4455 51.8305 153.443 285.386 397.7395
947.73
Gross Income
10
31
62
30
456
882
average Operating Working Capital
-45.8555
-24.411
-67.938
-146.72 -215.168
-225.13
average Receivables
3
5
8
18
38
138
Cost of Goods Sold
102
86
143
383
1,557
2,317
average Inventory
20
34
48
159
304
647
average Accounts Payable
15
22
43
180
304
541
average Current Assets
66
168
304
449
895
2,232
average Current Liabilities
73
72
138
365
607
1,391
average Cash + Receivables
42.856
126.49 246.6035 280.584 572.918 1524.137
average Cash
39
121
238
262
535
1,386
Operating Cash Flow
-80.825 -127.817 -114.364 -266.081 257.994
-57.337
average Net Debt
-11.0285 -84.5445 -62.1035 111.0135
1.8295 158.315
Interest Expense
3
1
0
0
22
101
Tax Expense
0
0
0
0
3
-24
Cash Dividends Paid
0
0
0
0
0
0
average Debt
28.4235 36.8465 176.3755 373.407 536.772 1544.596
OCF Sign
ICF Sign
FCF Sign
neg
neg
pos
neg
neg
pos
neg
neg
pos
neg
neg
pos
pos
neg
pos
neg
neg
pos
DEC '15 DEC '16 DEC '17 DEC '18 DEC '19 DEC '20 DEC '21 DEC '22
4,046
7,000
11,759
21,461
24,578
31,536
53,823
81,462
-889
-675
-1,961
-976
-862
690
5,524
12,583
1000.327 3497.035 5768.724 5972.963 7211.802 15894.5
27631 38740.5
6,971
15,378
25,660
29,197
32,024
43,229
57,140
72,235
-777.043 -575.959 -1782.56 -387.287 -27.9699 1398.322 5924.287 12489.75
2128.979 6892.95 12619.12 15251.32 16277.85 16848.5
19904 25785.5
924
1,554
2,217
4,042
4,069
6,630
13,606
20,853
-404.909 -1235.12 -2754.55 -3250.71
-2930.4
-3851
-6697
-7492
198
334
507
732
1,137
1,605
1,900
2,433
3,123
5,446
9,542
17,419
20,509
24,906
40,217
60,609
1,116
1,673
2,165
2,688
3,333
3,827
4,929
9,298
847
1,388
2,125
2,897
3,588
4,911
8,038
12,640
2,995
4,525
6,415
7,438
10,205
19,410
26,909
34,009
2,462
4,322
6,751
8,833
10,330
12,458
16,977
23,207
1769.383 2693.189 4018.248 4432.905 6332.596
14673 20736.5
22698
1,572
2,359
3,511
3,701
5,196
13,068
18,837
20,266
-524.499 -123.829
-60.654 2097.802
2405
5943
11497
14724
1128.652 3395.915 6850.396 9278.357 9066.051
954
-7727
-12955
119
199
471
663
685
748
371
191
-46
27
32
58
110
292
699
1,132
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2700.25 5755.051 10361.38 12979.06 14262.14
14022
11110
7310.5
neg
neg
pos
neg
neg
pos
neg
neg
pos
pos
neg
pos
pos
neg
pos
pos
neg
pos
pos
neg
neg
pos
neg
neg
DEC '09
PROFITABILITY
Return on Equity
Return on Assets
Return on Net Operating Assets
Gross Profit Margin
Net Profit Margin
DEC '10
DEC '11
DEC '12
DEC '13 DEC '14
339.53%
-61.21%
194.45%
8.52%
-49.79%
-113.16%
-59.76%
-296.34%
26.32%
-132.19%
-118.03%
-46.28%
-165.94%
30.16%
-124.56%
ASSET MANAGEMENT RATIOS
Asset Turnover Ratio
Operaitng Working Capital Turnover
Trade Receivables Turnover
Day's Receivable
Inventory Turnover
Day's Inventories
Payables Turnover
Day's Payables
Cash Conversion Cycle
1.23
-2.44
32.89
11.10
5.14
71.06
7.00
52.16
29.99
0.45
-4.78
22.90
15.94
2.51
145.14
3.91
93.44
67.64
0.37
-3.01
25.14
14.52
2.99
121.88
3.35
108.87
27.53
0.45
-2.82
22.72
16.07
2.41
151.73
2.13
171.23
-3.43
1.14
-9.36
53.02
6.88
5.12
71.36
5.13
71.18
7.06
0.77
-14.21
23.20
15.73
3.58
101.94
4.28
85.23
32.44
LIQUIDITY RATIOS
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Cash Ratio
Operating Cash Flow Ratio
0.91
0.59
0.54
-1.11
2.35
1.77
1.70
-1.79
2.20
1.78
1.72
-0.83
1.23
0.77
0.72
-0.73
1.47
0.94
0.88
0.42
1.60
1.10
1.00
-0.04
DEBT AND COVERAGE RATIOS
Leverage
Debt-to-equity
Debt-to-capital
Interest coverage
-5.55
-1.73
2.37
-21.01
1.89
0.27
0.21
-154.40
2.55
0.82
0.45
-5904.16
5.24
2.14
0.68
-1558.36
4.46
1.36
0.58
-2.23
5.24
1.96
0.66
-2.16
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH RATIOS
Dividend Payout Ratio
Sustainable Growth Rate
0.00%
339.53%
0.00%
-113.16%
0.00%
-118.03%
0.00%
0.00%
-227.22% -18.69%
0.00%
-37.25%
OTHER
Sales Growth
Lifecycle
Effective Tax Rate
-227.22% -18.69%
-43.36% -4.19%
-138.85% -12.89%
7.28% 22.66%
-95.88% -3.68%
-37.25%
-7.11%
-21.31%
27.57%
-9.19%
4.29%
74.95%
102.34% 387.23%
58.85%
Introduction Introduction Introduction Introduction Growth Introduction
-0.05%
-0.11%
-0.19%
-0.03% -3.62%
7.66%
DEC '15
DEC '16
DEC '17
DEC '18
DEC '19
DEC '20
DEC '21
DEC '22
-88.84%
-12.75%
-36.50%
22.82%
-21.96%
-19.30%
-4.39%
-8.36%
22.20%
-9.64%
-34.00%
-7.64%
-14.13%
18.85%
-16.68%
-16.34%
-3.34%
-2.54%
18.83%
-4.55%
-11.95%
-2.69%
-0.17%
16.56%
-3.51%
4.34%
1.60%
8.30%
21.02%
2.19%
19.99%
9.67%
29.76%
25.28%
10.26%
32.48%
17.42%
48.44%
25.60%
15.45%
0.58
-9.99
20.46
17.84
2.80
130.42
3.69
99.01
49.25
0.46
-5.67
20.96
17.42
3.26
112.11
3.92
93.05
36.48
0.46
-4.27
23.18
15.75
4.41
82.84
4.49
81.30
17.28
0.74
-6.60
29.31
12.45
6.48
56.33
6.01
60.71
8.08
0.77
-8.39
21.63
16.88
6.15
59.31
5.72
63.85
12.34
0.73
-8.19
19.65
18.58
6.51
56.08
5.07
71.97
2.68
0.94
-8.04
28.34
12.88
8.16
44.73
5.00
72.95
-15.34
1.13
-10.87
33.49
10.90
6.52
55.99
4.80
76.12
-9.23
1.22
0.72
0.64
-0.21
1.05
0.62
0.55
-0.03
0.95
0.60
0.52
-0.01
0.84
0.50
0.42
0.24
0.99
0.61
0.50
0.23
1.56
1.18
1.05
0.48
1.59
1.22
1.11
0.68
1.47
0.98
0.87
0.63
6.97
2.70
0.73
-6.86
4.40
1.65
0.62
-2.26
4.45
1.80
0.64
-3.10
4.89
2.17
0.68
-0.38
4.44
1.98
0.66
-0.10
2.72
0.88
0.47
2.31
2.07
0.40
0.29
17.77
1.86
0.19
0.16
72.81
0.00%
-88.84%
0.00%
-19.30%
0.00%
-34.00%
0.00%
-16.34%
0.00%
-11.95%
0.00%
4.34%
0.00%
19.99%
0.00%
32.48%
26.50%
73.01%
67.98%
82.51%
14.52%
28.31%
70.67%
51.35%
Introduction Introduction Introduction Growth
Growth
Growth
Mature
Mature
4.88%
-3.58%
-1.43%
-5.76% -16.54%
25.30%
11.02%
8.25%
Tesla
2020
Actual
2021
2022
2023
2024
Forecast
2025
2026
28.3%
4.4%
-9.5%
61.2%
6.6%
50.2%
70.7%
11.0%
-8.7%
41.1%
-4.5%
-36.1%
51.4%
15.3%
-10.7%
38.2%
1.1%
-41.0%
12.0%
14.0%
-6.9%
38.8%
1.5%
-57.4%
21.8%
14.0%
-5.0%
35.0%
1.8%
-55.0%
22.5%
12.0%
-4.0%
35.0%
2.0%
-52.0%
8.9%
10.0%
-4.0%
30.0%
2.5%
-50.0%
Operating Working Capital
Long Term Operating Assets
-3008.0
19301.0
-4694.0
22098.0
-8700.0
31104.0
-6284.0
35451.0
-5557
38900
-5445
47642
-5928
44459
Net Operating Assets
16293.0
17404.0
22404.0
29167.0
33343
42197
38531
Net Debt
Shareholders Equity
8183.0
8110.0
-6275.0
23679.0
-9179.0
31583.0
-16731.0
45898.0
-18339
51681
-21943
64140
-19266
57797
Net Capital
16293.0
17404.0
22404.0
29167.0
33343
42197
38531
31536.0
1398.3
536.3
53823.0
5924.3
280.3
81462.0
12489.7
-97.3
91260
12776
-251
111143
15560
-330
136120
16334
-439
148198
14820
-482
862
5644
12587
13027
15890
16773
15301
Net Income
less Change in WC
less Change in LTA
plus Change in debt
862
-1686
2797
-14458
5644
-4006
9006
-2904
12587
2416
4347
-7552
13027
727
3449
-1608
15890
112
8742
-3604
16773
-483
-3183
2677
15301
1247
2349
308
Free cash flow to equity
-14707
-2260
-1728
7244
3432
23116
12014
NOPAT
less Change in WC
less Change in LTA
1398.3
-1686.0
2797.0
5924.3
-4006.0
9006.0
12489.7
2416.0
4347.0
12776
727
3449
15560
112
8742
16334
-483
-3183
14820
1247
2349
Free cash flow to capital
287.3
924.3
5726.7
8601
6706
20000
11224
Forecasting Assumptions
Sales Growth
NOPAT Margin
Opening Operating WC / Sales
Opening LT Assets / Sales
After tax cost of debt
Opening Debt to Capital
Opening Balance Sheet
Income Statement
Sales
NOPAT
Interest expense after tax
Net Income
Free Cash Flow to Equity
Free Cash Flow to Capital
Ratio Analysis
Number of Shares
EPS
ROE
RNOA
FCF Equity Growth
FCF Capital Growth
NOA Growth
Net Income Growth
2880.000 3099.000 3164.000 3164.000 3164.000 3164.000 3164.000
0.30
1.82
3.98
4.12
5.02
5.30
4.84
5.4%
20.4%
32.5%
26.7%
27.4%
27.5%
25.7%
8.3%
29.8%
48.4%
40.9%
41.2%
40.5%
36.7%
-84.6%
-23.5%
-519.2%
-52.6%
573.6%
-48.0%
221.7%
519.6%
50.2%
-22.0%
198.3%
-43.9%
6.8%
28.7%
30.2%
14.3%
26.6%
-8.7%
554.8%
123.0%
3.5%
22.0%
5.6%
-8.8%
20207
2028
5.3%
8.0%
-3.0%
30.0%
3.0%
-45.0%
5.0%
8.0%
-3.0%
30.0%
3.0%
-45.0%
-4681
46808
-4915
49149
42127
44234
-18957
61085
-19905
64139
42127
44234
156028
12482
-569
163829
13051
13051
-234
2340
-948
9997
12482
-234
2340
10376
3164.000
4.12
20.8%
28.9%
-16.8%
-7.6%
9.3%
-14.7%
Tesla
Operating
2018
2019
Actual
2020
2021
2022
Forecast
19906
1555
21461
23047
1531
24578
29542
1994
31536
51034
2789
53823
77553 85396.25 101468.09
3909 5863.50
9674.78
81462 91259.75 111142.87
15.8%
-1.5%
14.5%
28.2%
30.2%
28.3%
72.8%
39.9%
70.7%
52.0%
40.2%
51.4%
10.1%
50.0%
12.0%
18.8%
65.0%
21.8%
2018
2019
Actual
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
14872
1757
4832
21461
12653
2979
8946
24578
15207
6662
9667
31536
23973
13844
16006
53823
40553
18145
22764
81462
-14.9%
69.6%
85.1%
14.5%
20.2%
123.6%
8.1%
28.3%
57.6%
107.8%
65.6%
70.7%
69.2%
31.1%
42.2%
51.4%
10.0%
8.0%
12.0%
10.1%
24.0%
12.0%
15.0%
18.8%
2018
2019
Actual
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
92.8%
7.2%
100.0%
93.8%
6.2%
100.0%
93.7%
6.3%
100.0%
94.8%
5.2%
100.0%
95.2%
4.8%
100.0%
93.6%
6.4%
100.0%
91.3%
8.7%
100.0%
2018
2019
Actual
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
69.3%
8.2%
22.5%
100.0%
51.5%
12.1%
36.4%
100.0%
48.2%
21.1%
30.7%
100.0%
44.5%
25.7%
29.7%
100.0%
49.8%
22.3%
27.9%
100.0%
49.7%
21.8%
28.4%
100.0%
51.9%
20.6%
27.5%
100.0%
2023
2024
Revenue ($)
Automotive
Energy Generation & Storage
Total
Revenue Growth (%)
Automotive
Energy Generation & Storage
Implied Revenue Growth
Geographic
Forecast
Revenue ($)
United States
China
Other
Total
44608.30 55314.29
19596.60 21948.19
25495.68 29320.03
89700.58 106582.52
Revenue Growth (%)
United States
China
Other
Implied Revenue Growth
Data sourced from Tesla 10-Ks
Operating
Forecast
Revenue Proportion
Automotive
Energy Generation & Storage
Total
Geographic
Forecast
Revenue Proportion
United States
China
Other
Total
Forecast
2025
2026
2027
123542.56 133104.96 139425.84
12577.21 15092.65 16601.91
136119.77 148197.61 156027.75
21.8%
30.0%
22.5%
7.7%
20.0%
8.9%
4.7%
10.0%
5.3%
Forecast
2025
2026
2027
71908.58 77661.27 80767.72
24143.01 26074.45 28056.11
33718.04 36078.30 37629.67
129769.63 139814.02 146453.49
30.0%
10.0%
15.0%
21.8%
8.0%
8.0%
7.0%
7.7%
4.0%
7.6%
4.3%
4.7%
Forecast
2025
2026
2027
90.8%
9.2%
100.0%
89.8%
10.2%
100.0%
89.4%
10.6%
100.0%
Forecast
2025
2026
2027
55.4%
18.6%
26.0%
100.0%
55.5%
18.6%
25.8%
100.0%
55.1%
19.2%
25.7%
100.0%