The figures below indicate the number of mergers that took place in the savings and loan industry over a 12-year period.

Year Mergers Year Mergers

2000 46 2006 83

2001 46 2007 123

2002 62 2008 97

2003 45 2009 186

2004 64 2010 225

2005 61 2011 240

a. Calculate a 5-year moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012.

b. Use the moving average technique to determine the forecast for 2005 to 2011. Calculate measurement error using MSE and MAD.

c. Calculate a 5-year weighted moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012. Use weights of 0.10, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25, and 0.30, with the most recent year weighted being the largest.

d. Use regression analysis to forecast the number of mergers in 2012.